--- title: "PGL Bucharest 2026 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "PGL Bucharest 2026 ($26.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 20 items with odds, observed 79.07% over 416 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [PGL Bucharest 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · PGL Bucharest 2026 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512?window=all) Price · $26.00 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $21.66 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.07% · 416 openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 28 openings · below min 7 days · 82.04% ±29.91 352 openings 30 days · 79.07% ±27.51 416 openings since tracking started · 79.07% ±27.51 416 openings -0.5% 86.0% 172.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512?window=24h) | 28 | 65.57% ±106.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512?window=7d) | 352 | 82.04% ±29.9 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512) | 416 | 79.07% ±27.5 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/512?window=all) | 416 | 79.07% ±27.5 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 416 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,700 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,200 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,300 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $900 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $480 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $450 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $312 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $200 | 4.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $140 | 6.5% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $95.00 | 6.6% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× | | [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 50 | $78.84 | 7.3% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $75.00 | 7.3% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $45.00 | 10.4% | 27 | 20.8 | 1.30× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $30.97 | 10.0% | 32 | 29.1 | 1.10× | | [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 10.0% | $23.63 | 10.9% | 47 | 41.6 | 1.13× | | [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-minimal-wear) | 12.1% | $12.00 | 6.7% | 51 | 50.5 | 1.01× | | [FAMAS \| CaliCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-field-tested) | 13.0% | $6.00 | 3.6% | 51 | 54.1 | 0.94× | | [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 15.0% | $4.90 | 3.4% | 64 | 62.4 | 1.03× | | [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 15.0% | $2.43 | 1.7% | 54 | 62.4 | 0.87× | | [Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.50 | 1.0% | 64 | 62.4 | 1.03× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: pgl-bucharest-2026)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $26.00 $900 34.62x 2026-11-06 22:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=512) [Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $26.00 $2.43 0.09x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $26.00 $2.43 0.09x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $26.00 $12.00 0.46x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-field-tested) [xxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/xxx) $26.00 $6.00 0.23x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $26.00 $1.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 23:57 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $26.00 $45.00 1.73x 2026-11-10 23:57 UTC [Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $26.00 $1.50 0.06x 2026-11-10 23:57 UTC [FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $26.00 $6.00 0.23x 2026-11-10 23:57 UTC [Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $26.00 $2.43 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:57 UTC [Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) [Code Tarkox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Code%20Tarkox) $26.00 $2.43 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $26.00 | 83.32% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 1.1% restricted 0.1% Ancient 4.3% classified 5.7% Classified 0.3% rare 11.5% uncommon 22.0% Mythical 27.1% industrial 13.0% pink 15.0% best hit $900 (34.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt