---
title: "Welcome Green case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Welcome Green ($0.20) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.19% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.91% over 3,181 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Welcome Green](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Welcome Green

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513?window=all)

Price · $0.20

Advertised RTP · 83.19% · EV $0.17 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.91% · 3,181 openings, odds method

Variance · 23.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.41% ±60.51 242 openings

7 days · 90.49% ±18.54 2,578 openings

30 days · 88.91% ±16.69 3,181 openings

since tracking started · 88.91% ±16.69 3,181 openings

14.5% 75.5% 136.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513?window=24h) | 242 | 75.41% ±60.5 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513?window=7d) | 2,578 | 90.49% ±18.5 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513) | 3,181 | 88.91% ±16.7 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/513?window=all) | 3,181 | 88.91% ±16.7 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,193 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $73.00 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.00 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $5.25 | 3.2% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $5.00 | 3.0% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.50 | 2.7% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.00 | 2.4% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.19× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $1.55 | 2.3% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1.10 | 3.3% | 12 | 16.0 | 0.75× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $1.00 | 4.2% | 18 | 22.4 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.70 | 4.2% | 36 | 31.9 | 1.13× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.60 | 3.6% | 32 | 31.9 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $0.55 | 4.1% | 45 | 39.9 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.55 | 4.1% | 41 | 39.9 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.47 | 6.0% | 66 | 68.0 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 27.0% | $0.11 | 17.9% | 848 | 862.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) | 27.0% | $0.11 | 17.9% | 850 | 862.1 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-field-tested) | 37.5% | $0.06 | 13.5% | 1,217 | 1197.4 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: welcome-green)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $0.20 $53.00 265.0x 2026-11-08 10:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=513)

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $0.20 $0.11 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $0.20 $0.11 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $0.20 $0.06 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $0.20 $0.11 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $0.20 $0.06 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [TYLOSE](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/TYLOSE) $0.20 $0.11 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) [GeJleyC](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/GeJleyC) $0.20 $0.11 0.55x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [stifflerdies](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/stifflerdies) $0.20 $0.11 0.55x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [Tobi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tobi) $0.20 $1.10 5.50x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-field-tested) [КТО НАХУЙ?](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%9A%D0%A2%D0%9E%20%D0%9D%D0%90%D0%A5%D0%A3%D0%99%3F) $0.20 $0.06 0.30x 2026-11-11 06:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.20 | 83.19% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% covert 0.0% #d32ee6 0.1% Legendary 0.1% #8847ff 3.2% restricted 1.5% Mythical 1.0% Restricted 1.3% violet 1.3% Uncommon 27.0% milspec 27.0% #5e98d9 37.5% best hit $53.00 (265.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.19 on average: an expected loss of $16.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt