--- title: "Welcome Grey case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Welcome Grey ($0.20) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.19% from 23 items with odds, observed 85.97% over 2,039 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Welcome Grey](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Welcome Grey A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514?window=all) Price · $0.20 Advertised RTP · 83.19% · EV $0.17 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.97% · 2,039 openings, odds method Variance · 25.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 67.15% ±82.34 142 openings 7 days · 88.23% ±23.30 1,774 openings 30 days · 85.97% ±21.73 2,039 openings since tracking started · 85.97% ±21.73 2,039 openings -0.5% 74.8% 150.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514?window=24h) | 142 | 67.15% ±82.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514?window=7d) | 1,774 | 88.23% ±23.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514) | 2,039 | 85.97% ±21.7 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/514?window=all) | 2,039 | 85.97% ±21.7 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,039 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $85.00 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $50.00 | 3.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $40.00 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $21.29 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $13.60 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 5,000 | $12.88 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $10.00 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $9.00 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $5.00 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× | | [MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $2.85 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Stinger (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-stinger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $2.50 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $2.20 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $1.65 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $1.15 | 1.0% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.96× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $0.90 | 1.1% | 8 | 4.1 | 1.96× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $0.65 | 2.0% | 16 | 10.2 | 1.57× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.61 | 3.7% | 27 | 20.4 | 1.32× | | [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.55 | 3.3% | 25 | 20.4 | 1.23× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.51 | 3.1% | 11 | 20.4 | 0.54× | | [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 20.2% | $0.15 | 18.2% | 423 | 411.9 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) | 20.5% | $0.12 | 14.8% | 425 | 418.0 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-battle-scarred) | 27.5% | $0.10 | 16.5% | 528 | 560.7 | 0.94× | | [P2000 \| Marsh (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-field-tested) | 27.5% | $0.09 | 14.9% | 563 | 560.7 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: welcome-grey)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $0.20 $50.00 250.0x 2026-11-09 09:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=514) [Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $0.20 $0.15 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Tilted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-battle-scarred) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $0.20 $0.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Tilted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-battle-scarred) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $0.20 $0.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-field-tested) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $0.20 $0.09 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $0.20 $0.15 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) [MIAZGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MIAZGA) $0.20 $0.12 0.60x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC [P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-field-tested) [Banjo Kazo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Banjo%20Kazo) $0.20 $0.09 0.45x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC [Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [GeJleyC](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/GeJleyC) $0.20 $0.15 0.75x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC [P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-field-tested) [stifflerdies](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/stifflerdies) $0.20 $0.09 0.45x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC [P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-field-tested) [Tobi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tobi) $0.20 $0.09 0.45x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.20 | 83.19% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.1% uncommon 0.0% rare 0.0% Legendary 0.0% restricted 0.3% #8847ff 1.4% Mythical 0.1% violet 1.5% Restricted 1.0% Rare 20.2% light blue 20.5% blueLight 27.5% #5e98d9 27.5% best hit $50.00 (250.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.19 on average: an expected loss of $16.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt