--- title: "Welcome Sand case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Welcome Sand ($0.20) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.06% from 18 items with odds, observed 96.89% over 3,314 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Welcome Sand](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Welcome Sand A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515?window=all) Price · $0.20 Advertised RTP · 83.06% · EV $0.17 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.89% · 3,314 openings, odds method Variance · 31.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 202.61% ±56.58 372 openings 7 days · 102.13% ±20.65 2,793 openings 30 days · 96.89% ±18.96 3,314 openings since tracking started · 96.89% ±18.96 3,314 openings 77.5% 168.8% 260.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515?window=24h) | 372 | 202.61% ±56.6 | +4.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515?window=7d) | 2,793 | 102.13% ±20.6 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515) | 3,314 | 96.89% ±19.0 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/515?window=all) | 3,314 | 96.89% ±19.0 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,314 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $98.00 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $52.00 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $39.07 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $29.00 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $21.00 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $20.50 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $10.00 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.00 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.70 | 2.8% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.50 | 2.7% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.11× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $3.00 | 1.8% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.81× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1.20 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $0.70 | 0.8% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $0.40 | 0.5% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× | | [MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.25 | 11.3% | 253 | 248.5 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.12 | 18.1% | 815 | 828.5 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.12 | 18.1% | 839 | 828.5 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 41.6% | $0.10 | 25.0% | 1,377 | 1377.1 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: welcome-sand)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) [Tobi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tobi) $0.20 $98.00 490.0x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) [仔仔宝呀](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%BB%94%E4%BB%94%E5%AE%9D%E5%91%80) $0.20 $39.07 195.4x 2026-11-08 11:55 UTC [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $0.20 $20.50 102.5x 2026-11-04 18:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=515) [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $0.20 $0.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [M4A4 | Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $0.20 $0.12 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $0.20 $0.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [M4A4 | Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $0.20 $0.12 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $0.20 $0.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [MP7 | Mischief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-battle-scarred) [iDLes](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/iDLes) $0.20 $0.25 1.25x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [Zedow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zedow) $0.20 $0.10 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC [MP7 | Mischief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-battle-scarred) [Zedow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zedow) $0.20 $0.25 1.25x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-minimal-wear) [Zedow](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zedow) $0.20 $3.00 15.00x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-field-tested) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $0.20 $0.12 0.60x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.20 | 83.06% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Ancient 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% Legendary 0.1% #d32ee6 0.0% restricted 0.4% Mythical 0.1% Rare 0.2% mil spec 7.5% industrial 25.0% blue 25.0% Uncommon 41.6% best hit $98.00 (490.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.06 on average: an expected loss of $16.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt