--- title: "PGL Astana 2026 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "PGL Astana 2026 ($30.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.12% from 14 items with odds, observed 95.82% over 776 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [PGL Astana 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · PGL Astana 2026 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516?window=all) Price · $30.00 Advertised RTP · 83.12% · EV $24.94 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.82% · 776 openings, odds method Variance · 13.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 93.90% ±34.82 422 openings 30 days · 95.82% ±25.68 776 openings since tracking started · 95.82% ±25.68 776 openings -0.5% 119.0% 238.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516?window=24h) | 12 | 31.39% ±206.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516?window=7d) | 422 | 93.90% ±34.8 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516) | 776 | 95.82% ±25.7 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/516?window=all) | 776 | 95.82% ±25.7 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 776 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,200 | 24.1% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $700 | 14.0% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $600 | 12.0% | 8 | 3.9 | 2.06× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $390 | 7.8% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $170 | 3.4% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.55× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $140 | 2.8% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $80.00 | 1.6% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.80× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $65.00 | 1.3% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.55× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $37.00 | 1.5% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.42× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $27.00 | 4.3% | 33 | 31.0 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $13.00 | 7.8% | 104 | 116.4 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $9.00 | 7.2% | 143 | 155.2 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 21.0% | $6.00 | 5.1% | 176 | 163.0 | 1.08× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 35.0% | $5.00 | 7.0% | 267 | 271.6 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: pgl-astana-2026)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $30.00 $1,200 40.00x 2026-11-08 02:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $30.00 $1,200 40.00x 2026-11-07 08:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [Code Tarkox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Code%20Tarkox) $30.00 $1,200 40.00x 2026-11-05 00:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [RevvOnGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RevvOnGambles) $30.00 $1,200 40.00x 2026-11-03 21:30 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $30.00 $1,200 40.00x 2026-11-03 12:21 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) [RevvOnGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RevvOnGambles) $30.00 $700 23.33x 2026-11-03 21:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $30.00 $600 20.00x 2026-11-09 22:51 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $30.00 $600 20.00x 2026-11-09 22:51 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $30.00 $600 20.00x 2026-11-08 02:25 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $30.00 $600 20.00x 2026-11-08 02:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=516) [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $30.00 $9.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $30.00 $9.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $30.00 $6.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $30.00 $9.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $30.00 $9.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $30.00 $9.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $30.00 $5.00 0.17x 2026-11-11 01:24 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-pulse-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $30.00 $27.00 0.90x 2026-11-11 01:24 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) [Q群124210043](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Q%E7%BE%A4124210043) $30.00 $13.00 0.43x 2026-11-11 01:24 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $30.00 $5.00 0.17x 2026-11-10 14:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.00 | 83.12% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 51.5% restricted 24.5% extraordinary 0.5% covert knife 0.5% covert 1.5% Covert 0.5% Mythical 21.0% best hit $1,200 (40.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.12 on average: an expected loss of $16.88 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt