--- title: "Mouz case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mouz ($46.77) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 28 items with odds, observed 113.32% over 246 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Mouz](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Mouz A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524?window=all) Price · $46.77 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $38.97 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 113.32% · 246 openings, odds method Variance · 12.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 13 openings · below min 7 days · 76.02% ±68.55 103 openings 30 days · 113.32% ±44.35 246 openings since tracking started · 113.32% ±44.35 246 openings -0.5% 140.3% 281.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524?window=24h) | 13 | 87.17% ±192.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524?window=7d) | 103 | 76.02% ±68.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524) | 246 | 113.32% ±44.4 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/524?window=all) | 246 | 113.32% ±44.4 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.3K | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,580 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,500 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,500 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,500 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,400 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,850 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,410 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,370 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,250 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,250 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,236 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $550 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $250 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $230 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $210 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $200 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 435 | $189 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $134 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $125 | 4.2% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $120 | 6.2% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $100 | 6.4% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $100 | 6.4% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.46× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $80.00 | 10.3% | 9 | 12.3 | 0.73× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $70.00 | 10.8% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 26.0% | $37.00 | 24.7% | 62 | 64.0 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) | 26.1% | $17.00 | 11.4% | 61 | 64.2 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 27.1% | $2.00 | 1.4% | 76 | 66.5 | 1.14× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: mouz)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) [仔仔宝呀](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%BB%94%E4%BB%94%E5%AE%9D%E5%91%80) $46.77 $4,500 96.22x 2026-11-04 00:26 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $46.77 $550 11.76x 2026-11-09 00:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=524) [USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $46.77 $37.00 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $46.77 $37.00 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $46.77 $17.00 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $46.77 $2.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $46.77 $70.00 1.50x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $46.77 $17.00 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) [User1879353](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/User1879353) $46.77 $17.00 0.36x 2026-11-11 07:27 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $46.77 $2.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $46.77 $100 2.14x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $46.77 $210 4.49x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $46.77 | 83.32% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.1% contraband 0.0% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% legendary 0.1% gold 0.1% rare 0.1% Covert 0.6% #eb4b4b 1.3% red 30.5% Mythical 26.1% restricted 27.1% best hit $4,500 (96.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt