--- title: "IEM Cologne Major 2026 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "IEM Cologne Major 2026 ($30.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.28% from 19 items with odds, observed 77.25% over 418 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [IEM Cologne Major 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · IEM Cologne Major 2026 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526?window=all) Price · $30.00 Advertised RTP · 83.28% · EV $24.98 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.25% · 418 openings, odds method Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 15 openings · below min 7 days · 67.90% ±31.78 289 openings 30 days · 77.25% ±26.43 418 openings since tracking started · 77.25% ±26.43 418 openings -0.5% 92.3% 185.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526?window=24h) | 15 | 44.89% ±139.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526?window=7d) | 289 | 67.90% ±31.8 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526) | 418 | 77.25% ±26.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/526?window=all) | 418 | 77.25% ±26.4 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 418 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,300 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,800 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,050 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $860 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $420 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $330 | 4.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $220 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $180 | 7.2% | 10 | 4.2 | 2.39× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $155 | 6.2% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $100 | 4.0% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.67× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $76.00 | 3.0% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.91× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $60.00 | 6.6% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $48.00 | 5.8% | 17 | 12.5 | 1.36× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $30.00 | 10.8% | 32 | 37.6 | 0.85× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $23.00 | 9.2% | 33 | 41.8 | 0.79× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 10.0% | $15.00 | 6.0% | 35 | 41.8 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $12.00 | 7.2% | 52 | 62.7 | 0.83× | | [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $8.00 | 4.8% | 67 | 62.7 | 1.07× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 30.2% | $4.50 | 5.4% | 142 | 126.2 | 1.12× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: iem-cologne-major-2026)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=526) [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $30.00 $4.50 0.15x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $30.00 $15.00 0.50x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $30.00 $8.00 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $30.00 $8.00 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $30.00 $12.00 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [LamaKicker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LamaKicker) $30.00 $4.50 0.15x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $30.00 $23.00 0.77x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $30.00 $23.00 0.77x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $30.00 $15.00 0.50x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $30.00 $4.50 0.15x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.00 | 83.28% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed knifes 0.1% covert 1.4% Covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.5% classified 24.0% pink 16.0% #d32ee6 1.0% red 2.8% Legendary 39.2% restricted 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.28 on average: an expected loss of $16.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt