--- title: "Team Falcons case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Team Falcons ($47.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 21 items with odds, observed 72.21% over 293 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Team Falcons](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Team Falcons A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527?window=all) Price · $47.00 Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $39.15 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.21% · 293 openings, odds method Variance · 14.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 70.41% ±50.82 217 openings 30 days · 72.21% ±43.74 293 openings since tracking started · 72.21% ±43.74 293 openings -0.5% 166.3% 333.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527?window=24h) | 12 | 116.13% ±216.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527?window=7d) | 217 | 70.41% ±50.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527) | 293 | 72.21% ±43.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/527?window=all) | 293 | 72.21% ±43.7 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 293 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.5K | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.2K | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,750 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,850 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $525 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $300 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $300 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $275 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $275 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $250 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $170 | 4.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.31× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $150 | 7.7% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $125 | 9.6% | 6 | 8.8 | 0.68× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $85.00 | 10.9% | 12 | 14.7 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $80.00 | 10.2% | 15 | 14.7 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $73.00 | 11.2% | 14 | 17.6 | 0.80× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 10.0% | $40.00 | 10.2% | 37 | 29.3 | 1.26× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 10.0% | $25.00 | 6.4% | 29 | 29.3 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 12.0% | $17.00 | 5.2% | 28 | 35.2 | 0.80× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $15.00 | 5.7% | 57 | 43.9 | 1.30× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 30.0% | $4.00 | 3.1% | 84 | 87.9 | 0.96× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: team-falcons)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=527) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $47.00 $80.00 1.70x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $47.00 $150 3.19x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $47.00 $40.00 0.85x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $47.00 $15.00 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $47.00 $25.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) [猛干老外](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%8C%9B%E5%B9%B2%E8%80%81%E5%A4%96) $47.00 $25.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $47.00 $15.00 0.32x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $47.00 $40.00 0.85x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $47.00 $80.00 1.70x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $47.00 $85.00 1.81x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $47.00 | 83.30% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.8% extraordinary 0.1% Covert 6.0% Ancient 6.0% red 10.0% restricted 37.0% #8847ff 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt