--- title: "The MongolZ case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The MongolZ ($46.70) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 24 items with odds, observed 80.52% over 371 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [The MongolZ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · The MongolZ A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528?window=all) Price · $46.70 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $38.91 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.52% · 371 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 72.39% ±27.58 147 openings 30 days · 80.52% ±17.36 371 openings since tracking started · 80.52% ±17.36 371 openings -0.5% 95.8% 192.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528?window=24h) | 6 | 54.85% ±136.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528?window=7d) | 147 | 72.39% ±27.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528) | 371 | 80.52% ±17.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/528?window=all) | 371 | 80.52% ±17.4 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 371 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,670 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,300 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,300 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,070 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $840 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $750 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $490 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $385 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $270 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $260 | 6.7% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $230 | 5.9% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $180 | 4.6% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $165 | 4.2% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $140 | 3.6% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $90.00 | 2.3% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.62× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $80.00 | 2.1% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $73.00 | 1.9% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Well-Worn) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $65.00 | 2.7% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.67× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 15.0% | $60.00 | 23.1% | 67 | 55.6 | 1.20× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 15.0% | $36.00 | 13.9% | 54 | 55.6 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $32.00 | 12.3% | 47 | 55.6 | 0.84× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 15.0% | $21.00 | 8.1% | 52 | 55.6 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 15.0% | $4.00 | 1.5% | 59 | 55.6 | 1.06× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.70 | 0.3% | 53 | 55.6 | 0.95× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: the-mongolz)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=528) [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $46.70 $60.00 1.28x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $46.70 $36.00 0.77x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $46.70 $4.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $46.70 $21.00 0.45x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $46.70 $0.70 0.01x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $46.70 $32.00 0.69x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $46.70 $60.00 1.28x 2026-11-10 01:29 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $46.70 $32.00 0.69x 2026-11-10 01:29 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $46.70 $4.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 01:29 UTC [MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $46.70 $21.00 0.45x 2026-11-10 01:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $46.70 | 83.32% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.0% classified 16.1% covert 20.1% rare 0.1% red 0.1% extraordinary 1.1% Ancient 1.0% #eb4b4b 1.6% industrial 15.0% violet 15.0% pink 15.0% consumer 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt