--- title: "Heroic case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Heroic ($44.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.25% from 25 items with odds, observed 88.95% over 220 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Heroic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Heroic A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530?window=all) Price · $44.00 Advertised RTP · 83.25% · EV $36.63 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.95% · 220 openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 15 openings · below min 7 days · 84.73% ±36.53 157 openings 30 days · 88.95% ±30.86 220 openings since tracking started · 88.95% ±30.86 220 openings -0.5% 100.0% 200.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530?window=24h) | 15 | 81.67% ±118.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530?window=7d) | 157 | 84.73% ±36.5 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530) | 220 | 88.95% ±30.9 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/530?window=all) | 220 | 88.95% ±30.9 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 220 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,356 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,800 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,650 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,620 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,320 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,300 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,280 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,200 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $705 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $530 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $490 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $335 | 4.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $240 | 3.3% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.64× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $172 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $98.00 | 2.7% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $80.00 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $75.00 | 3.1% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $70.00 | 3.8% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $62.00 | 5.1% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $45.00 | 7.4% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $40.00 | 6.6% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $37.00 | 7.1% | 16 | 15.4 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 15.0% | $27.00 | 11.1% | 42 | 33.0 | 1.27× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 25.0% | $18.00 | 12.3% | 54 | 55.0 | 0.98× | | [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 30.2% | $9.00 | 7.4% | 63 | 66.5 | 0.95× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: heroic)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $44.00 $705 16.02x 2026-11-04 00:27 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) [Singapore](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Singapore) $44.00 $530 12.05x 2026-11-10 12:40 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $44.00 $530 12.05x 2026-11-09 15:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=530) [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $44.00 $9.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $44.00 $62.00 1.41x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $44.00 $240 5.45x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $44.00 $18.00 0.41x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $44.00 $37.00 0.84x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $44.00 $9.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $44.00 $9.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $44.00 $18.00 0.41x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $44.00 $37.00 0.84x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $44.00 $9.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 06:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $44.00 | 83.25% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.3% covert 8.8% legendary 0.1% sunny 0.5% covert knife 0.5% red 7.5% Ancient 12.0% restricted 15.0% Legendary 55.2% best hit $705 (16.02x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.25 on average: an expected loss of $16.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt