---
title: "Bounty S2 2026 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Bounty S2 2026 ($40.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 21 items with odds, observed 86.01% over 4,052 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Bounty S2 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Bounty S2 2026

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $33.33 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.01% · 4,052 openings, odds method

Variance · 12.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.56% ±22.13 993 openings

7 days · 91.23% ±12.76 2,989 openings

30 days · 86.01% ±10.96 4,052 openings

since tracking started · 86.01% ±10.96 4,052 openings

74.5% 98.5% 122.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531?window=24h) | 993 | 99.56% ±22.1 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531?window=7d) | 2,989 | 91.23% ±12.8 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531) | 4,052 | 86.01% ±11.0 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/531?window=all) | 4,052 | 86.01% ±11.0 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,052 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $3,750 | 3.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,100 | 4.7% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.48× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,900 | 5.7% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,370 | 4.1% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.73× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1,240 | 5.6% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $900 | 5.4% | 10 | 8.1 | 1.23× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $450 | 2.7% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $355 | 3.2% | 12 | 12.2 | 0.99× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $340 | 4.1% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $205 | 6.2% | 35 | 40.5 | 0.86× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $195 | 5.9% | 41 | 40.5 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $155 | 6.0% | 46 | 52.7 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $94.00 | 3.9% | 56 | 56.7 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $58.00 | 4.8% | 137 | 112.2 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $55.00 | 5.0% | 115 | 121.6 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $45.00 | 6.8% | 181 | 202.6 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $38.00 | 6.3% | 211 | 222.9 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 12.0% | $24.00 | 8.6% | 495 | 486.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 15.0% | $7.00 | 3.2% | 632 | 607.8 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) | 15.5% | $5.00 | 2.3% | 657 | 628.1 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 35.0% | $2.20 | 2.3% | 1,383 | 1418.2 | 0.98× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: blast-bounty-summer-2026)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $40.00 $3,750 93.75x 2026-11-05 05:17 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $40.00 $3,750 93.75x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $40.00 $3,100 77.50x 2026-11-11 12:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $40.00 $3,100 77.50x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $40.00 $3,100 77.50x 2026-11-04 20:20 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $40.00 $1,900 47.50x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $40.00 $1,900 47.50x 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $40.00 $1,900 47.50x 2026-11-04 07:35 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $40.00 $1,370 34.25x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $40.00 $1,370 34.25x 2026-11-09 07:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=531)

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $40.00 $7.00 0.18x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $40.00 $55.00 1.38x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $40.00 $2.20 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $40.00 $2.20 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $40.00 $5.00 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) [火锅锅](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%81%AB%E9%94%85%E9%94%85) $40.00 $2.20 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $40.00 $7.00 0.18x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $40.00 $45.00 1.13x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $40.00 $24.00 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $40.00 $2.20 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $40.00 | 83.33% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.3% classified 22.6% covert 7.6% Ancient 1.0% restricted 53.0% Mythical 15.5% best hit $3,750 (93.75x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt