--- title: "Chicken Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Chicken Case ($9.99) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 20 items with odds, observed 81.49% over 3,520 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Chicken Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Chicken Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534?window=all) Price · $9.99 Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $8.32 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.49% · 3,520 openings, odds method Variance · 17.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.92% ±32.83 619 openings 7 days · 82.65% ±15.44 2,797 openings 30 days · 81.49% ±13.77 3,520 openings since tracking started · 81.49% ±13.77 3,520 openings 41.5% 75.0% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534?window=24h) | 619 | 74.92% ±32.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534?window=7d) | 2,797 | 82.65% ±15.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534) | 3,520 | 81.49% ±13.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/534?window=all) | 3,520 | 81.49% ±13.8 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,520 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,900 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,200 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,800 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,600 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,000 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $750 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $600 | 3.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $600 | 3.6% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $300 | 3.6% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $250 | 6.0% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.71× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $205 | 6.2% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $130 | 15.6% | 44 | 35.2 | 1.25× | | [M4A4 \| Falak (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $70.00 | 8.4% | 27 | 35.2 | 0.77× | | [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $23.00 | 8.3% | 114 | 105.6 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $14.00 | 6.2% | 129 | 130.5 | 0.99× | | [P90 \| Attack Vector (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $10.00 | 6.0% | 149 | 176.0 | 0.85× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 15.1% | $5.50 | 10.0% | 536 | 531.5 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 20.0% | $3.00 | 7.2% | 717 | 704.0 | 1.02× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.00 | 4.8% | 706 | 704.0 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 30.5% | $1.00 | 3.7% | 1,078 | 1073.6 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: chicken-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) [Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Forever) $9.99 $1,800 180.2x 2026-11-09 12:49 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $9.99 $750 75.08x 2026-11-08 21:03 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $9.99 $600 60.06x 2026-11-06 22:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [drey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/drey) $9.99 $600 60.06x 2026-11-04 17:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=534) [AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $9.99 $3.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [M4A4 | Falak (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $9.99 $70.00 7.01x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) [Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Forever) $9.99 $3.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $9.99 $1.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $9.99 $5.50 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $9.99 $3.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Forever) $9.99 $2.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $9.99 $2.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $9.99 $14.00 1.40x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $9.99 $3.00 0.30x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.99 | 83.31% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 1.3% gold 0.0% classified 6.8% red 0.3% #d32ce6 1.0% uncommon 5.0% restricted 35.1% #8847ff 20.0% Mythical 30.5% best hit $1,800 (180.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt