--- title: "Jack o lantern case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jack o lantern ($6.66) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 23 items with odds, observed 76.64% over 1,501 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Jack o lantern](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Jack o lantern A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536?window=all) Price · $6.66 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $5.55 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.64% · 1,501 openings, odds method Variance · 27.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 42 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 179 openings · below min 7 days · 68.98% ±28.32 1,291 openings 30 days · 76.64% ±26.27 1,501 openings since tracking started · 76.64% ±26.27 1,501 openings -0.5% 73.5% 147.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536?window=24h) | 179 | 70.72% ±76.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536?window=7d) | 1,291 | 68.98% ±28.3 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536) | 1,501 | 76.64% ±26.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/536?window=all) | 1,501 | 76.64% ±26.3 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,501 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,000 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $915 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $825 | 4.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $780 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $575 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $475 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $280 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $115 | 2.3% | 5 | 1.7 | 3.03× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $90.00 | 16.2% | 17 | 15.0 | 1.13× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $55.00 | 9.9% | 21 | 15.0 | 1.40× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $30.00 | 5.4% | 17 | 15.0 | 1.13× | | [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $25.00 | 4.5% | 10 | 15.0 | 0.67× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $17.00 | 4.6% | 17 | 22.5 | 0.76× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.00 | 4.7% | 37 | 30.0 | 1.23× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.00 | 4.9% | 41 | 45.0 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $6.50 | 3.5% | 48 | 45.0 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.50 | 2.4% | 44 | 45.0 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $4.00 | 2.9% | 62 | 60.0 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $4.00 | 2.9% | 59 | 60.0 | 0.98× | | [Nova \| Smart Gun (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-smart-gun-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.75 | 3.0% | 96 | 90.1 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) | 11.1% | $1.25 | 2.5% | 145 | 167.2 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 19.0% | $0.40 | 1.4% | 309 | 285.2 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) | 39.0% | $0.20 | 1.4% | 572 | 585.4 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: jack-o-lantern)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $6.66 $825 123.9x 2026-11-03 15:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=536) [M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $6.66 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $6.66 $4.00 0.60x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $6.66 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $6.66 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $6.66 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $6.66 $4.00 0.60x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $6.66 $4.00 0.60x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) [Joseph Joestar skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Joseph%20Joestar%20skins.army) $6.66 $0.40 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC [M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $6.66 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $6.66 $1.25 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.66 | 83.32% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 4.0% Immortal 0.0% restricted 23.2% red 0.2% Ancient 2.0% rare 1.0% Mythical 24.5% #d32ee6 3.0% Legendary 3.0% blue 39.0% best hit $825 (123.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt