--- title: "10% M4A4 case on DatDrop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% M4A4 ($14.00) on DatDrop, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DatDrop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/datdrop) / [10% M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4) # [DatDrop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/datdrop) · 10% M4A4 A case on DatDrop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is DatDrop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4?window=all) Price · $14.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · — · top-only feed: not summed Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · advertised only **DatDrop publishes its notable drops only.** Wins without losses cannot be summed, so this case shows what its odds advertise and no observed RTP. Drops listed below are the notable ones the feed showed. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4?window=24h) | 0 | top-only feed | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4?window=7d) | 0 | top-only feed | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4) | 0 | top-only feed | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/10-m4a4?window=all) | 0 | top-only feed | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** DatDrop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are DatDrop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) [b1gmonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/b1gmonk) $14.00 $4,754 339.6x 2026-11-07 01:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=datdrop&case=10-m4a4) [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) [Funkayy CODEDDK](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/Funkayy%20CODEDDK) $14.00 $16.03 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) [tiruriru](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/tiruriru) $14.00 $130 9.26x 2026-11-10 23:11 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) [Emilio Gaviria](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/Emilio%20Gaviria) $14.00 $44.86 3.20x 2026-11-10 14:32 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) [Emilio Gaviria](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/Emilio%20Gaviria) $14.00 $79.48 5.68x 2026-11-10 14:31 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) [canuletmewinpls](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/canuletmewinpls) $14.00 $44.86 3.20x 2026-11-10 08:51 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) [ballsdeepinurmom](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/ballsdeepinurmom) $14.00 $497 35.51x 2026-11-10 08:49 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) [Gotcha](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/Gotcha) $14.00 $35.41 2.53x 2026-11-10 08:21 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) [ballsdeepinurmom](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/ballsdeepinurmom) $14.00 $79.48 5.68x 2026-11-09 16:59 UTC [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) [ballsdeepinurmom](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/ballsdeepinurmom) $14.00 $15.92 1.14x 2026-11-09 16:58 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) [ballsdeepinurmom](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/ballsdeepinurmom) $14.00 $44.86 3.20x 2026-11-09 16:58 UTC ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days Not summed for a top-only feed ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt