--- title: "The Lucky One case on DatDrop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Lucky One ($115.00) on DatDrop, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one rendered: 2026-11-11T17:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DatDrop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/datdrop) / [The Lucky One](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one) # [DatDrop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/datdrop) · The Lucky One A case on DatDrop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is DatDrop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one?window=all) Price · $115.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · — · top-only feed: not summed Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · advertised only **DatDrop publishes its notable drops only.** Wins without losses cannot be summed, so this case shows what its odds advertise and no observed RTP. Drops listed below are the notable ones the feed showed. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one?window=24h) | 0 | top-only feed | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one?window=7d) | 0 | top-only feed | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one) | 0 | top-only feed | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/datdrop/the-lucky-one?window=all) | 0 | top-only feed | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** DatDrop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are DatDrop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) [PIMPSTAH](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/PIMPSTAH) $115 $2,450 21.31x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) [MILAS2](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/MILAS2) $115 $894 7.77x 2026-11-04 03:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [Prodigy](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/Prodigy) $115 $811 7.05x 2026-11-05 22:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [giowop](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/giowop) $115 $811 7.05x 2026-11-05 12:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=datdrop&case=the-lucky-one) [Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) [YERR](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/YERR) $115 $137 1.19x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) [PIMPSTAH](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/PIMPSTAH) $115 $137 1.19x 2026-11-11 06:38 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-factory-new) [PIMPSTAH](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/PIMPSTAH) $115 $170 1.48x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) [PIMPSTAH](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/PIMPSTAH) $115 $2,450 21.31x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) [YERR](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/YERR) $115 $137 1.19x 2026-11-09 19:44 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-factory-new) [fletcher.gorczany](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/fletcher.gorczany) $115 $170 1.48x 2026-11-08 15:26 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) [Mocha](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/Mocha) $115 $137 1.19x 2026-11-08 11:05 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [dadplz](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/dadplz) $115 $186 1.62x 2026-11-06 04:02 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [Prodigy](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/Prodigy) $115 $811 7.05x 2026-11-05 22:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [giowop](https://gambatracker.com/players/datdrop/giowop) $115 $811 7.05x 2026-11-05 12:14 UTC ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days Not summed for a top-only feed ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt