---
title: "AMBER-FADE case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "AMBER-FADE ($3.40) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.40% from 52 items with odds, observed 64.25% over 1,475 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [AMBER-FADE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · AMBER-FADE

A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade?window=all)

Price · $3.40

Advertised RTP · 90.40% · EV $3.07 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 64.25% · 1,475 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 69.47% ±31.25 348 openings

7 days · 65.11% ±15.78 1,329 openings

30 days · 64.25% ±14.96 1,475 openings

since tracking started · 64.25% ±14.96 1,475 openings

37.5% 69.5% 101.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.68% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (49.29% – 79.21%, 1,475 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade?window=24h) | 348 | 69.47% ±31.2 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade?window=7d) | 1,329 | 65.11% ±15.8 | −3.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade) | 1,475 | 64.25% ±15.0 | −3.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/amber-fade?window=all) | 1,475 | 64.25% ±15.0 | −3.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,475 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 1,405 | $147 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,195 | $125 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 1,166 | $122 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 968 | $102 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 773 | $81.17 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 512 | $53.70 | 3.4% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 508 | $53.34 | 3.4% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 401 | $42.06 | 3.4% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 372 | $39.07 | 3.4% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 310 | $32.57 | 3.4% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 277 | $29.09 | 3.4% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.56× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $26.25 | 3.4% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $25.04 | 3.4% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 232 | $24.36 | 3.4% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.26× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 207 | $21.69 | 3.4% | 5 | 7.1 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 192 | $20.20 | 3.4% | 16 | 7.7 | 2.09× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 218 | $16.54 | 2.5% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $10.85 | 2.1% | 13 | 8.7 | 1.49× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 165 | $10.41 | 2.1% | 11 | 8.9 | 1.23× |
| [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $10.35 | 2.0% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $8.14 | 1.9% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $6.53 | 1.7% | 14 | 11.8 | 1.18× |
| [P2000 \| Space Race (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $6.53 | 1.7% | 7 | 11.8 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 124 | $6.44 | 1.7% | 17 | 11.9 | 1.43× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $5.78 | 1.6% | 10 | 12.7 | 0.79× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Night (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $5.28 | 1.6% | 17 | 13.4 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $4.81 | 1.5% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.70× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $4.09 | 1.4% | 19 | 15.7 | 1.21× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $2.95 | 1.8% | 26 | 28.2 | 0.92× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $2.79 | 1.8% | 31 | 29.9 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $2.49 | 1.8% | 32 | 33.2 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $2.19 | 1.8% | 39 | 37.3 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $2.10 | 1.8% | 37 | 38.6 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.59 | 1.7% | 53 | 47.5 | 1.12× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.53 | 1.6% | 50 | 48.7 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.98 | 1.3% | 60 | 60.1 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.90 | 1.2% | 56 | 61.9 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.71 | 1.0% | 70 | 64.8 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.64 | 0.9% | 68 | 65.5 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.58 | 0.8% | 61 | 65.7 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.58 | 0.8% | 69 | 65.7 | 1.05× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.53 | 0.8% | 65 | 65.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Sonar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-sonar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.53 | 0.8% | 50 | 65.5 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Turf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-turf-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.45 | 0.6% | 61 | 64.5 | 0.95× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.39 | 0.5% | 83 | 62.5 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Turf (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-turf-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.37 | 0.5% | 59 | 61.4 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.34 | 0.4% | 73 | 60.0 | 1.22× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.32 | 0.4% | 42 | 58.4 | 0.72× |
| [Souvenir SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.30 | 0.4% | 58 | 57.0 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.29 | 0.4% | 58 | 56.6 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 51 | 46.2 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.13 | 0.1% | 36 | 31.2 | 1.15× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/amber-fade/info`, 11 Nov, 20:24 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=amber-fade)

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Jerry) $3.40 $0.58 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:50 UTC

[Souvenir SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Jerry) $3.40 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:50 UTC

[P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Jerry) $3.40 $0.34 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:50 UTC

[Souvenir UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-scorched-field-tested) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Jerry) $3.40 $0.20 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:50 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-minimal-wear) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Jerry) $3.40 $0.98 0.29x 2026-11-11 20:50 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-battle-scarred) [KarsiK](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/KarsiK) $3.40 $0.38 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) [KarsiK](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/KarsiK) $3.40 $1.72 0.51x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-battle-scarred) [KarsiK](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/KarsiK) $3.40 $0.38 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-field-tested) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Jerry) $3.40 $15.98 4.70x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [Jerry](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Jerry) $3.40 $0.67 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $3.40 | 90.40% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $3.40 | 93.05% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.40 | 91.64% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.40 | 89.78% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $3.40 | 89.94% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $3.40 | 90.20% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $3.40 | 89.72% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $3.40 | 88.94% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $3.40 | 89.97% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.40 | 89.56% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.5% Classified 1.0% restricted 11.2% classified 3.3% pink 1.6% industrial 1.2% #d32ee6 0.7% Restricted 0.8% Consumer Grade 7.9% mil spec 19.0% Rare 10.1% #8847ff 8.9% Mil Spec Grade 2.5% Legendary 3.3% Uncommon 4.5% milspec 13.3% #4b69ff 8.2% blue 2.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.40 on average: an expected loss of $9.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt