---
title: "BOREAL case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BOREAL ($43.00) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.09% from 74 items with odds, observed 63.84% over 65 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [BOREAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · BOREAL

A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal?window=all)

Price · $43.00

Advertised RTP · 88.09% · EV $37.88 from 74 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 63.84% · 65 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 9 openings · below min

7 days · 58 openings · below min

30 days · 65 openings · below min

since tracking started · 65 openings · below min

-0.5% 95.5% 191.5%

**Small sample.** 65 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal?window=24h) | 9 | 68.25% ±122.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal?window=7d) | 58 | 66.93% ±46.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal) | 65 | 63.84% ±44.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/boreal?window=all) | 65 | 63.84% ±44.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 967 | $1,491 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 364 | $561 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 231 | $356 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $328 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 201 | $309 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $251 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $229 | 4.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $218 | 4.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $218 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 1,461 | $211 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,416 | $204 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,279 | $185 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,278 | $184 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 1,272 | $184 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,267 | $183 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 1,241 | $179 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,203 | $173 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 1,022 | $147 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,013 | $146 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 1,002 | $144 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $144 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 864 | $125 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 853 | $123 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 828 | $119 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 806 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 805 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 804 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 803 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 771 | $111 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 767 | $111 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 742 | $107 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 661 | $95.36 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 657 | $94.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 634 | $91.50 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 608 | $87.65 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 600 | $86.52 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 524 | $75.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 486 | $70.13 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 481 | $69.40 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 465 | $67.05 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 464 | $66.94 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 422 | $60.88 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 414 | $59.79 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 409 | $59.05 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 405 | $58.41 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 391 | $56.47 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 387 | $55.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 380 | $54.75 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 355 | $51.21 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 355 | $51.18 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 336 | $48.53 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 334 | $48.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 325 | $46.87 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 323 | $46.54 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 322 | $46.46 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 319 | $46.03 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 319 | $45.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 312 | $45.07 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 311 | $44.84 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 304 | $43.82 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | — | $41.93 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $41.59 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $41.16 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $40.62 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $39.55 | 3.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $38.94 | 4.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $36.72 | 4.8% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $35.71 | 4.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $33.76 | 5.3% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $27.43 | 5.1% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $13.70 | 2.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $11.98 | 2.5% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $7.06 | 1.7% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $6.44 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 17.0% | $6.43 | 2.9% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/boreal/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=boreal)

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $43.00 $34.69 0.81x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $43.00 $95.17 2.21x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $43.00 $27.66 0.64x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $43.00 $6.41 0.15x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $43.00 $39.54 0.92x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) [sNr](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/sNr) $43.00 $40.76 0.95x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) [Squirrel](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Squirrel) $43.00 $6.41 0.15x 2026-11-10 23:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [Squirrel](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Squirrel) $43.00 $7.07 0.16x 2026-11-10 23:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [Meinicke\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Meinicke_) $43.00 $6.43 0.15x 2026-11-10 17:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [faze\_harboe](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/faze_harboe) $43.00 $6.89 0.16x 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $43.00 | 88.09% | 75 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $43.00 | 89.55% | 75 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $43.00 | 90.07% | 75 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $43.00 | 89.90% | 75 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $43.00 | 91.70% | 75 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $43.00 | 88.19% | 75 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $43.00 | 88.05% | 75 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $43.00 | 93.49% | 75 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $43.00 | 90.35% | 75 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $43.00 | 92.93% | 75 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 14.1% covert 31.7% red 0.5% gold 0.5% Ancient 9.3% restricted 18.0% Classified 9.0% #8847ff 17.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.09 on average: an expected loss of $11.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt