---
title: "BREAKOUT case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BREAKOUT ($10.73) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 81.46% from 45 items with odds, observed 80.68% over 11 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [BREAKOUT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · BREAKOUT

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout?window=all)

Price · $10.73

Advertised RTP · 81.46% · EV $8.74 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.68% · 11 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 9 openings · below min

30 days · 11 openings · below min

since tracking started · 11 openings · below min

-0.5% 115.8% 232.0%

**Small sample.** 11 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout?window=24h) | 3 | 39.14% ±192.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout?window=7d) | 9 | 75.13% ±111.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout) | 11 | 80.68% ±100.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/breakout?window=all) | 11 | 80.68% ±100.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 434 | $205 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 417 | $197 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 246 | $116 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $97.81 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 178 | $84.02 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $59.04 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 505 | $43.92 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 474 | $39.49 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 408 | $30.71 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 381 | $27.43 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $26.51 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 344 | $23.18 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 334 | $22.06 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 331 | $21.70 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 331 | $21.69 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 312 | $19.72 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $17.67 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 283 | $16.70 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 273 | $15.72 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-blind-spot-factory-new) | 1 in 271 | $15.52 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 267 | $15.16 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 236 | $12.31 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 235 | $12.30 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 235 | $12.25 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $9.27 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.73 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.67 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $7.50 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.41 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $6.27 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $6.20 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $5.56 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Barricade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $5.54 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.94 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $4.91 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $4.64 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $4.07 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $4.00 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $3.67 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.30 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.94 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.76 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Dart (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $2.16 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $0.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/breakout/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=breakout)

[AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $10.73 $3.94 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $10.73 $2.94 0.27x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $10.73 $5.72 0.53x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC

[SG 553 | Barricade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-minimal-wear) [CuuzdoWn](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/CuuzdoWn) $10.73 $5.66 0.53x 2026-11-09 01:08 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [CuuzdoWn](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/CuuzdoWn) $10.73 $5.49 0.51x 2026-11-08 18:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) [Beano](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Beano) $10.73 $5.14 0.48x 2026-11-06 02:41 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) Hidden $10.73 $5.48 0.51x 2026-11-05 17:31 UTC

[FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) Hidden $10.73 $32.53 3.03x 2026-11-05 17:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [早く生きて、早く死ぬ](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%E6%97%A9%E3%81%8F%E7%94%9F%E3%81%8D%E3%81%A6%E3%80%81%E6%97%A9%E3%81%8F%E6%AD%BB%E3%81%AC) $10.73 $5.64 0.53x 2026-11-05 17:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $10.73 | 81.46% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $10.73 | 81.38% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $10.73 | 81.21% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $10.73 | 81.01% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $10.73 | 81.20% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $10.73 | 83.43% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $10.73 | 81.74% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $10.73 | 80.98% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $10.73 | 81.14% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $10.73 | 82.40% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.7% extraordinary 0.5% covert knife 0.6% Immortal 0.2% classified 21.9% Mythical 14.8% Mil Spec Grade 4.2% industrial 9.8% #8847ff 0.4% #4b69ff 0.4% restricted 14.8% milspec 4.6% Consumer Grade 4.6% Common 4.9% violet 9.1% Consumer 4.5% mil spec 2.4% Mil Spec 0.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.46 on average: an expected loss of $18.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt