---
title: "CHROMA-2 case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CHROMA-2 ($4.85) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.78% from 45 items with odds, observed 85.19% over 38 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [CHROMA-2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · CHROMA-2

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2?window=all)

Price · $4.85

Advertised RTP · 93.78% · EV $4.55 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.19% · 38 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 35 openings · below min

30 days · 38 openings · below min

since tracking started · 38 openings · below min

-0.5% 85.0% 170.5%

**Small sample.** 38 openings and 8.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2?window=24h) | 20 | 83.16% ±86.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2?window=7d) | 35 | 89.68% ±65.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2) | 38 | 85.19% ±63.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-2?window=all) | 38 | 85.19% ±63.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 965 | $181 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 675 | $127 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 322 | $60.46 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 209 | $39.12 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 187 | $34.99 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 155 | $29.09 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $28.47 | 4.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-well-worn) | 1 in 326 | $16.39 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 307 | $14.84 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 292 | $13.66 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $13.17 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 262 | $11.41 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 1 in 242 | $10.00 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 201 | $7.33 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 184 | $6.30 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Retribution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-retribution-factory-new) | 1 in 178 | $5.99 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Watchdog (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $5.80 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 173 | $5.68 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $5.18 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 157 | $4.88 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $4.56 | 3.9% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $4.55 | 3.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× |
| [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $4.52 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $4.32 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $4.32 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.13 | 3.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.09 | 3.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.03 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.94 | 3.5% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.63× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.69 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.66 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $3.22 | 2.9% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.94 | 2.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [P90 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.72 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $2.37 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.12 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.92 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.74 | 1.4% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.10× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.70 | 1.4% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.53 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.41 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $0.98 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $0.79 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $0.66 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $0.54 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/chroma-2/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=chroma-2)

[StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.85 $4.32 0.89x 2026-11-11 07:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) Hidden $4.85 $1.53 0.31x 2026-11-11 07:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-factory-new) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.85 $4.55 0.94x 2026-11-11 07:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.85 $5.80 1.20x 2026-11-11 07:23 UTC

[UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.85 $4.52 0.93x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-factory-new) Hidden $4.85 $4.55 0.94x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.85 $4.56 0.94x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.85 $2.37 0.49x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $4.85 $3.94 0.81x 2026-11-11 07:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) Hidden $4.85 $2.37 0.49x 2026-11-11 07:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $4.85 | 93.78% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $4.85 | 94.43% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.85 | 93.86% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.85 | 94.26% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $4.85 | 92.45% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $4.85 | 95.22% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $4.85 | 95.36% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $4.85 | 96.23% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.85 | 98.16% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.85 | 98.12% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.3% gold 0.3% classified 1.8% restricted 33.1% pink 0.3% #87c7ff 0.4% industrial 0.4% Mil Spec Grade 7.5% Mil Spec 0.6% mil spec 5.7% consumer 1.2% violet 7.9% #8847ff 3.9% Industrial Grade 7.8% Mythical 3.9% Consumer Grade 8.1% Common 4.1% #4b69ff 3.7% blue 3.6% Rare 2.4% light blue 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.78 on average: an expected loss of $6.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt