---
title: "CHROMA-3 case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CHROMA-3 ($3.49) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 119.45% from 51 items with odds, observed 76.69% over 137 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [CHROMA-3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · CHROMA-3

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3?window=all)

Price · $3.49

Advertised RTP · 119.45% · EV $4.17 from 51 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.69% · 137 openings, odds method

Variance · 34.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 52 openings · below min

7 days · 77.03% ±84.50 133 openings

30 days · 76.69% ±83.18 137 openings

since tracking started · 76.69% ±83.18 137 openings

-0.5% 105.5% 211.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3?window=24h) | 52 | 68.58% ±142.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3?window=7d) | 133 | 77.03% ±84.5 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3) | 137 | 76.69% ±83.2 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma-3?window=all) | 137 | 76.69% ±83.2 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 51 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 137 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,439 | $792 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,878 | $433 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,531 | $353 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 529 | $122 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 348 | $80.09 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 176 | $40.57 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $25.38 | 5.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $20.93 | 5.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-battle-scarred) | 1 in 398 | $17.35 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-red-rock-well-worn) | 1 in 382 | $16.20 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 1 in 336 | $13.07 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-fleet-flock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 332 | $12.82 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 303 | $11.03 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $9.10 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 253 | $8.14 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $7.13 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 213 | $6.15 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 212 | $6.09 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 193 | $5.18 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AUG \| Daedalus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 193 | $5.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 189 | $5.04 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $4.84 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 184 | $4.79 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $4.42 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $3.48 | 3.0% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| [Nova \| Gila (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-gila-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $3.43 | 3.0% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $3.42 | 3.0% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.93 | 2.7% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $2.88 | 2.6% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.57× |
| [Negev \| Boroque Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $2.82 | 2.6% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $2.62 | 2.4% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $2.53 | 2.4% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.52 | 2.4% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.38 | 2.3% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.38 | 2.3% | 14 | 5.4 | 2.58× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.35 | 2.2% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Vandal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-vandal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.17 | 2.1% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [Souvenir Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.95 | 1.9% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.78 | 1.7% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.28× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.74 | 1.7% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $1.31 | 1.2% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.18 | 1.1% | 9 | 5.1 | 1.78× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.07 | 0.9% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-midnight-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.74 | 0.5% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $0.59 | 0.4% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.58 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.57 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-orange-crash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.52 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.60× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.42 | 0.2% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.35× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $0.34 | 0.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/chroma-3/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=chroma-3)

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) [voyager](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/voyager) $3.49 $2.52 0.72x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-field-tested) [voyager](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/voyager) $3.49 $1.78 0.51x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-well-worn) Hidden $3.49 $2.82 0.81x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $3.49 $2.93 0.84x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC

[SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-factory-new) [shcherbakovnikitav](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/shcherbakovnikitav) $3.49 $2.35 0.67x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC

[P2000 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.49 $0.42 0.12x 2026-11-11 08:04 UTC

[UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.49 $2.93 0.84x 2026-11-11 08:04 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-well-worn) Hidden $3.49 $2.82 0.81x 2026-11-11 08:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $3.49 $2.38 0.68x 2026-11-11 08:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $3.49 $2.52 0.72x 2026-11-11 08:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $3.49 | 119.45% | 51 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $3.49 | 109.06% | 51 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.49 | 108.44% | 51 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.49 | 106.46% | 51 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $3.49 | 107.14% | 51 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $3.49 | 106.15% | 51 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $3.49 | 110.12% | 51 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $3.49 | 104.50% | 51 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $3.49 | 104.57% | 51 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.49 | 103.51% | 51 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 4.0% covert knife 0.0% covert 0.2% Covert 0.1% Legendary 0.3% mil spec 2.6% classified 3.1% pink 0.7% restricted 21.5% Mil Spec Grade 5.1% #d32ee6 0.4% consumer 4.3% Restricted 4.2% Consumer Grade 11.5% violet 3.9% industrial 3.9% light blue 4.0% Rare 10.6% #4b69ff 6.5% Industrial Grade 7.0% gray 3.6% milspec 2.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 119.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $119.45 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt