---
title: "CHROMA case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CHROMA ($4.20) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.30% from 47 items with odds, observed 61.01% over 40 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [CHROMA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · CHROMA

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma?window=all)

Price · $4.20

Advertised RTP · 87.30% · EV $3.67 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 61.01% · 40 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 37 openings · below min

30 days · 40 openings · below min

since tracking started · 40 openings · below min

-0.5% 73.5% 147.5%

**Small sample.** 40 openings and 7.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma?window=24h) | 18 | 52.03% ±94.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma?window=7d) | 37 | 60.06% ±64.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma) | 40 | 61.01% ±61.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/chroma?window=all) | 40 | 61.01% ±61.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 868 | $126 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 857 | $125 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 335 | $48.73 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 253 | $36.86 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $31.02 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $22.73 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 146 | $21.22 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 530 | $17.67 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 520 | $17.15 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 486 | $15.31 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 465 | $14.20 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 460 | $13.96 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 425 | $12.25 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 380 | $10.14 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 317 | $7.50 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) | 1 in 298 | $6.77 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 291 | $6.51 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 273 | $5.86 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-well-worn) | 1 in 271 | $5.80 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-well-worn) | 1 in 261 | $5.44 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 261 | $5.42 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 229 | $4.36 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 227 | $4.30 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $4.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $4.23 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $3.68 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $3.64 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [Nova \| Gila (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-gila-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $3.64 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $3.41 | 4.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.38 | 4.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $3.15 | 3.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $3.09 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $2.82 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.72 | 3.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.48 | 3.0% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.23× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Indigo (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-indigo-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.39 | 2.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.31 | 2.8% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.78× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.24 | 2.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.20 | 2.7% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.79× |
| [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1.89 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.78 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.68 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.53 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.98 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.98 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.76 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.67 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/chroma/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=chroma)

[MAC-10 | Malachite (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-well-worn) Hidden $4.20 $2.31 0.55x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[MAC-10 | Malachite (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-well-worn) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.20 $2.31 0.55x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[MAC-10 | Malachite (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-well-worn) Hidden $4.20 $2.31 0.55x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.20 $3.15 0.75x 2026-11-11 07:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $4.20 $1.53 0.36x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-field-tested) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.20 $2.20 0.52x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-factory-new) Hidden $4.20 $2.72 0.65x 2026-11-11 07:14 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.20 $2.24 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:14 UTC

[Souvenir Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) Hidden $4.20 $0.98 0.23x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $4.20 $3.64 0.87x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $4.20 | 87.30% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $4.20 | 94.90% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.20 | 96.60% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.20 | 97.77% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $4.20 | 95.80% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $4.20 | 97.90% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $4.20 | 92.78% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $4.20 | 92.72% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.20 | 96.41% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.20 | 91.89% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 0.3% covert 0.2% gold 0.3% classified 6.8% #d32ee6 0.7% Classified 0.2% mil spec 19.4% #4b69ff 0.8% Restricted 1.2% #8847ff 13.6% restricted 14.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.7% Mythical 4.2% Consumer Grade 8.7% violet 4.4% blue 4.5% Common 4.5% industrial 4.5% Industrial 3.5% Rare 3.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.30 on average: an expected loss of $12.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt