---
title: "CONTRABAND case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CONTRABAND ($0.79) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 138.21% from 55 items with odds, observed 78.91% over 1,567 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [CONTRABAND](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · CONTRABAND

A case on DROP.SKIN (gun\_room), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband?window=all)

Price · $0.79

Advertised RTP · 138.21% · EV $1.09 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.91% · 1,567 openings, odds method

Variance · 43.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 53 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 259 openings · below min

7 days · 81.59% ±35.20 1,348 openings

30 days · 78.91% ±32.68 1,567 openings

since tracking started · 78.91% ±32.68 1,567 openings

5.0% 86.0% 167.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 138.13% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (46.23% – 111.59%, 1,567 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband?window=24h) | 259 | 86.00% ±80.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband?window=7d) | 1,348 | 81.59% ±35.2 | −3.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband) | 1,567 | 78.91% ±32.7 | −3.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/contraband?window=all) | 1,567 | 78.91% ±32.7 | −3.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,567 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,461 | $167 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 4,610 | $141 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,968 | $121 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 2,508 | $76.48 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,650 | $50.30 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 1,237 | $37.73 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,201 | $36.63 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 1 in 1,055 | $32.17 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,023 | $31.20 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 990 | $30.20 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 911 | $27.79 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 863 | $26.31 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 666 | $20.30 | 2.8% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 649 | $19.78 | 2.8% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 595 | $18.14 | 2.8% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 557 | $17.00 | 2.8% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 540 | $16.47 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-field-tested) | 1 in 510 | $15.55 | 2.8% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sobeks-bite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 463 | $14.13 | 2.8% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.48× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-battle-scarred) | 1 in 312 | $9.51 | 2.8% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $6.24 | 2.8% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $4.98 | 2.8% | 15 | 9.6 | 1.56× |
| [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 1 in 357 | $2.95 | 0.8% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Briar (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-briar-field-tested) | 1 in 269 | $1.84 | 0.6% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Walnut (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-walnut-well-worn) | 1 in 253 | $1.67 | 0.6% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $1.37 | 0.6% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 214 | $1.26 | 0.5% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $1.17 | 0.5% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-factory-new) | 1 in 204 | $1.16 | 0.5% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-well-worn) | 1 in 194 | $1.07 | 0.5% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.87× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-minimal-wear) | 1 in 184 | $0.98 | 0.5% | 5 | 8.5 | 0.59× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 184 | $0.98 | 0.5% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.29× |
| [MAC-10 \| Strats (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-battle-scarred) | 1 in 178 | $0.92 | 0.5% | 10 | 8.8 | 1.13× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) | 1 in 171 | $0.87 | 0.5% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Drift Wood (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-drift-wood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $0.84 | 0.5% | 15 | 9.3 | 1.61× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-quicksilver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $0.83 | 0.5% | 19 | 9.4 | 2.02× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Warbird (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-warbird-field-tested) | 1 in 166 | $0.83 | 0.5% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-imprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.73 | 3.2% | 77 | 75.6 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.69 | 3.1% | 78 | 78.1 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.64 | 3.0% | 97 | 80.8 | 1.20× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.63 | 3.0% | 80 | 81.7 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.54 | 2.8% | 88 | 86.8 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.53 | 2.7% | 93 | 87.8 | 1.06× |
| [Nova \| Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.50 | 2.6% | 0 | 89.1 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.48 | 2.6% | 87 | 90.3 | 0.96× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-azure-glyph-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.31 | 1.7% | 83 | 96.7 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.30 | 1.7% | 101 | 96.7 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-classic-crate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.25 | 1.4% | 76 | 95.6 | 0.79× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Prey (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-prey-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.14 | 0.7% | 100 | 80.9 | 1.24× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.14 | 0.7% | 68 | 79.9 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.12 | 0.5% | 70 | 71.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.09 | 0.3% | 52 | 60.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-poultrygeist-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.08 | 0.3% | 58 | 56.9 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.06 | 0.2% | 55 | 44.2 | 1.25× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 48 | 41.6 | 1.15× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/contraband/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=contraband)

[Nova | Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-factory-new) [Tea](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Tea) $0.79 $0.69 0.87x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-classic-crate-battle-scarred) [Tea](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Tea) $0.79 $0.25 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) [Tea](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Tea) $0.79 $2.95 3.73x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Predator (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-predator-minimal-wear) [Tea](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Tea) $0.79 $0.50 0.64x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Framework (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-minimal-wear) [Tea](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Tea) $0.79 $0.53 0.67x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-well-worn) [Tea](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Tea) $0.79 $0.09 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-imprint-minimal-wear) [Tea](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Tea) $0.79 $0.73 0.93x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) [Anfr0](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anfr0) $0.79 $0.48 0.61x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-prey-battle-scarred) [Anfr0](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anfr0) $0.79 $0.14 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) Hidden $0.79 $0.06 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.79 | 138.21% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.79 | 138.73% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.79 | 138.17% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.79 | 137.74% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.79 | 136.44% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.79 | 138.52% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.79 | 136.63% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.79 | 137.49% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.79 | 140.22% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.79 | 140.04% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.0% classified 0.6% Mil Spec Grade 3.5% restricted 1.9% Mythical 0.7% mil spec 11.5% blue 0.2% industrial 0.2% Industrial Grade 6.4% #d32ee6 0.3% Industrial 0.6% #4b69ff 8.8% Consumer Grade 18.4% milspec 34.1% Rare 1.1% consumer 11.2% Uncommon 0.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 138.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $138.21 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt