---
title: "COVERT case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "COVERT ($6.99) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 102.29% from 118 items with odds, observed 61.41% over 659 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [COVERT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · COVERT

A case on DROP.SKIN (rarity), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert?window=all)

Price · $6.99

Advertised RTP · 102.29% · EV $7.15 from 118 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 61.41% · 659 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77 openings · below min

7 days · 60.50% ±23.54 576 openings

30 days · 61.41% ±22.01 659 openings

since tracking started · 61.41% ±22.01 659 openings

5.0% 69.8% 134.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 101.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (39.41% – 83.42%, 659 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert?window=24h) | 77 | 69.81% ±64.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert?window=7d) | 576 | 60.50% ±23.5 | −3.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert) | 659 | 61.41% ±22.0 | −3.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/covert?window=all) | 659 | 61.41% ±22.0 | −3.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 118 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 659 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22,523 | $681 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17,921 | $542 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $504 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 15,823 | $478 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 12,658 | $382 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,236 | $340 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 11,062 | $334 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,650 | $322 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,170 | $247 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 7,806 | $236 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 7,593 | $230 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 7,440 | $225 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 7,424 | $224 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,067 | $214 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 6,974 | $211 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,897 | $208 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,878 | $208 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,258 | $189 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 6,177 | $187 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 6,072 | $184 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 5,737 | $173 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 5,258 | $159 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 4,878 | $147 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 4,780 | $144 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-well-worn) | 1 in 4,706 | $142 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 4,425 | $134 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 4,394 | $133 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,365 | $132 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 4,340 | $131 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 4,286 | $130 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,274 | $129 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 4,272 | $129 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,175 | $126 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 4,090 | $124 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,024 | $122 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,003 | $121 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,887 | $117 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 3,828 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-well-worn) | 1 in 3,815 | $115 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 3,775 | $114 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 1 in 3,722 | $112 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,706 | $112 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-well-worn) | 1 in 3,697 | $112 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 3,691 | $112 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 3,622 | $109 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,398 | $103 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 3,346 | $101 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $101 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 3,212 | $97.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,155 | $95.36 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,154 | $95.33 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,135 | $94.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 3,113 | $94.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 3,014 | $91.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 3,013 | $91.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,012 | $91.07 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 3,008 | $90.96 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,003 | $90.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 2,994 | $90.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,976 | $89.96 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 2,966 | $89.69 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 2,965 | $89.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,950 | $89.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 2,897 | $87.56 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 2,889 | $87.35 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 2,886 | $87.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 2,424 | $73.26 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 2,411 | $72.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,320 | $70.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 2,311 | $69.87 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 2,218 | $67.05 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 2,032 | $61.43 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,010 | $60.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 1,989 | $60.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,989 | $60.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 1,966 | $59.42 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,892 | $57.19 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 1,783 | $53.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,636 | $49.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,567 | $47.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 1,564 | $47.29 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,550 | $46.87 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,549 | $46.84 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,450 | $43.82 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 1,396 | $42.21 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 1,386 | $41.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 1,344 | $40.62 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,342 | $40.59 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,288 | $38.94 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,247 | $37.69 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,212 | $36.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,205 | $36.42 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 1,196 | $36.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 170 | $33.94 | 2.8% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 169 | $33.77 | 2.8% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $33.68 | 2.8% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 166 | $32.89 | 2.8% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.51× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $32.27 | 2.7% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $32.11 | 2.7% | 8 | 4.0 | 1.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 159 | $30.59 | 2.7% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $30.45 | 2.7% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 157 | $29.86 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $28.97 | 2.6% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 150 | $27.82 | 2.6% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $5.87 | 4.9% | 41 | 39.1 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-digital-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.55 | 4.3% | 47 | 44.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $2.85 | 3.1% | 45 | 50.5 | 0.89× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.80 | 3.0% | 42 | 50.6 | 0.83× |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-mummys-rot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.72 | 2.9% | 58 | 50.7 | 1.14× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.48 | 2.7% | 63 | 51.0 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.36 | 2.6% | 51 | 51.1 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.12 | 2.3% | 53 | 50.9 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.37 | 1.4% | 39 | 46.5 | 0.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.23 | 1.2% | 58 | 44.7 | 1.30× |
| [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.98 | 0.8% | 42 | 40.0 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.94 | 0.8% | 49 | 39.0 | 1.26× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.78 | 0.6% | 30 | 34.7 | 0.87× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/covert/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=covert)

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) [LM](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/LM) $6.99 $2.12 0.30x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) [L4gos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/L4gos) $6.99 $5.83 0.83x 2026-11-11 08:36 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) [L4gos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/L4gos) $6.99 $1.23 0.18x 2026-11-11 08:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-digital-mesh-factory-new) [L4gos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/L4gos) $6.99 $4.55 0.65x 2026-11-11 08:35 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 $1.37 0.20x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) [AYGIT KOCAMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/AYGIT%20KOCAMAN) $6.99 $0.78 0.11x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $6.99 $37.69 5.39x 2026-11-11 06:37 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-minimal-wear) [Рай/Rai](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B9%2FRai) $6.99 $0.99 0.14x 2026-11-11 04:19 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) [76561198138952470](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/76561198138952470) $6.99 $0.78 0.11x 2026-11-11 04:08 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) [prezp00nage](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/prezp00nage) $6.99 $0.94 0.13x 2026-11-11 03:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $6.99 | 102.29% | 118 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $6.99 | 101.92% | 118 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $6.99 | 102.12% | 118 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.99 | 101.67% | 118 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $6.99 | 101.78% | 118 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $6.99 | 101.62% | 118 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $6.99 | 101.04% | 118 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $6.99 | 101.31% | 118 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $6.99 | 101.52% | 118 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $6.99 | 101.80% | 118 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.2% Covert 0.8% red 1.4% #eb4b4b 0.0% Ancient 2.0% industrial 0.6% classified 5.9% milspec 6.7% #8847ff 13.7% #4b69ff 7.7% Mil Spec Grade 7.7% restricted 41.4% violet 6.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 102.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $102.29 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt