---
title: "CS20 case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CS20 ($1.49) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.73% from 47 items with odds, observed 72.00% over 165 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [CS20](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · CS20

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 94.73% · EV $1.41 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.00% · 165 openings, odds method

Variance · 12.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 72.55% ±58.41 152 openings

30 days · 72.00% ±56.03 165 openings

since tracking started · 72.00% ±56.03 165 openings

-0.5% 121.5% 243.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20?window=24h) | 13 | 50.65% ±192.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20?window=7d) | 152 | 72.55% ±58.4 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20) | 165 | 72.00% ±56.0 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/cs20?window=all) | 165 | 72.00% ±56.0 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 165 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,754 | $273 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 3,301 | $157 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 766 | $36.42 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 646 | $30.71 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 621 | $29.52 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 465 | $22.12 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 364 | $17.28 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 358 | $17.02 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) | 1 in 324 | $15.39 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $8.69 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 166 | $7.90 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 354 | $5.54 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 352 | $5.49 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 346 | $5.34 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-aloha-field-tested) | 1 in 339 | $5.14 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $2.97 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 223 | $2.57 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 207 | $2.26 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 203 | $2.19 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $2.02 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $1.99 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 189 | $1.94 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-keeping-tabs-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $1.55 | 0.7% | 4 | 1.0 | 3.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-well-worn) | 1 in 162 | $1.50 | 0.7% | 6 | 1.0 | 5.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $1.31 | 3.6% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-tom-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.22 | 3.5% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.17 | 3.4% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.10 | 3.2% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $1.09 | 3.2% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.48× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.02 | 3.0% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.01 | 3.0% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.98 | 2.9% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.91 | 2.7% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.88 | 2.6% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.84 | 2.5% | 10 | 7.0 | 1.43× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.78 | 2.4% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.71× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.76 | 2.3% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Aztec (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-aztec-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.72 | 2.2% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.71× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.72 | 2.2% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.59 | 1.7% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-elite-1-6-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.54 | 1.6% | 3 | 6.7 | 0.45× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.53 | 1.5% | 12 | 6.7 | 1.79× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.44 | 1.2% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.42 | 1.1% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.38 | 1.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.37 | 0.9% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-night-riot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $0.18 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/cs20/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=cs20)

[StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-well-worn) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $1.49 $1.18 0.79x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.49 $1.31 0.88x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC

[MAG-7 | Popdog (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-field-tested) Hidden $1.49 $0.42 0.28x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) [Electric](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Electric) $1.49 $0.39 0.26x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-well-worn) [Electric](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Electric) $1.49 $1.15 0.77x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.49 $0.67 0.45x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-night-riot-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.49 $0.18 0.12x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Scavenger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) [Electric](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Electric) $1.49 $0.92 0.62x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-field-tested) [Electric](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Electric) $1.49 $1.01 0.68x 2026-11-11 01:01 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) [Deucalion](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Deucalion) $1.49 $0.59 0.40x 2026-11-10 22:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.49 | 94.73% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.49 | 94.95% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.49 | 98.58% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.49 | 96.10% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.49 | 96.05% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.49 | 100.04% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.49 | 104.22% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.49 | 105.41% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.49 | 96.63% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.49 | 100.83% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% classified 0.9% Restricted 13.7% Legendary 0.8% industrial 0.3% #d32ee6 0.6% consumer 0.7% Mil Spec Grade 7.2% violet 0.5% restricted 26.6% Mil Spec 0.6% mil spec 23.3% milspec 8.4% Mythical 4.2% Rare 7.9% Common 4.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.73 on average: an expected loss of $5.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt