---
title: "DREAM case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DREAM ($229.00) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 52 items with odds, observed 46.00% over 1 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [DREAM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · DREAM

A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream?window=all)

Price · $229.00

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $203.55 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 46.00% · 1 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 1 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1 openings · below min

-0.5% 211.5% 423.5%

**Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream?window=24h) | 1 | 46.00% ±376.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream?window=7d) | 1 | 46.00% ±376.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream) | 1 | 46.00% ±376.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/dream?window=all) | 1 | 46.00% ±376.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $3,256 | 12.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $2,365 | 12.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1,650 | 12.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $1,327 | 12.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 600 | $905 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 424 | $639 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 417 | $630 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 417 | $629 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 394 | $594 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 334 | $504 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 264 | $398 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 232 | $350 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 213 | $322 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 212 | $320 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 212 | $319 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $287 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $270 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $245 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 160 | $242 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) | 1 in 156 | $235 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $226 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $221 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $219 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $208 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 136 | $205 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $201 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | — | $192 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | — | $191 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | — | $190 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | — | $187 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | — | $184 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $183 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $179 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $159 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $149 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $147 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $133 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $132 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $128 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $128 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $120 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $120 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $119 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $113 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $110 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $105 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $97.81 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $93.09 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $92.18 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $80.28 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $80.04 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $75.11 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $61.43 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $59.04 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $58.34 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $54.81 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) | 19.0% | $53.72 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/dream/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=dream)

[MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) [krazY](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/krazY) $229 $105 0.46x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $229 | 88.89% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $229 | 90.01% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $229 | 90.39% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $229 | 91.77% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $229 | 88.32% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $229 | 90.70% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $229 | 90.49% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $229 | 91.34% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $229 | 91.99% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $229 | 92.88% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Classified 0.8% covert 34.1% #ffd700 1.5% Covert 0.2% gold 9.2% Restricted 0.3% classified 12.8% restricted 3.4% sunny 0.5% epic 0.5% rare 0.7% extraordinary 30.0% covert knife 2.0% Immortal 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt