---
title: "EMERALD case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EMERALD ($6.10) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 110.72% from 48 items with odds, observed 90.31% over 805 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [EMERALD](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · EMERALD

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald?window=all)

Price · $6.10

Advertised RTP · 110.72% · EV $6.75 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.31% · 805 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.26% ±45.00 136 openings

7 days · 90.04% ±19.60 747 openings

30 days · 90.31% ±18.86 805 openings

since tracking started · 90.31% ±18.86 805 openings

43.5% 89.3% 135.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 109.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (71.45% – 109.17%, 805 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald?window=24h) | 136 | 89.26% ±45.0 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald?window=7d) | 747 | 90.04% ±19.6 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald) | 805 | 90.31% ±18.9 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/emerald?window=all) | 805 | 90.31% ±18.9 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 805 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,010 | $499 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 632 | $157 | 3.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 418 | $104 | 3.7% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 405 | $100 | 3.7% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 269 | $66.87 | 3.7% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 227 | $56.34 | 3.7% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 220 | $54.63 | 3.7% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $50.45 | 3.7% | 9 | 4.0 | 2.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $36.09 | 3.7% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $35.43 | 3.7% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 354 | $26.13 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $17.10 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 272 | $16.87 | 0.9% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 229 | $12.60 | 0.8% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 225 | $12.31 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $11.28 | 0.8% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 203 | $10.36 | 0.8% | 8 | 4.0 | 2.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 197 | $9.85 | 0.7% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.72× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $9.44 | 0.7% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 183 | $8.68 | 0.7% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $7.60 | 0.7% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 168 | $7.50 | 0.7% | 13 | 4.8 | 2.71× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $7.05 | 0.6% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 161 | $7.03 | 0.6% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.80× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $6.64 | 0.6% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 151 | $6.31 | 0.6% | 9 | 5.3 | 1.69× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $6.01 | 3.8% | 26 | 34.4 | 0.76× |
| [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $5.98 | 3.8% | 15 | 34.4 | 0.44× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $5.96 | 3.8% | 34 | 34.5 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $5.78 | 3.7% | 33 | 34.7 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $5.44 | 3.5% | 37 | 35.3 | 1.05× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $4.79 | 3.2% | 31 | 36.1 | 0.86× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $4.52 | 3.0% | 40 | 36.4 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $4.30 | 2.9% | 42 | 36.6 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $4.08 | 2.8% | 53 | 36.7 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $3.98 | 2.7% | 37 | 36.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $3.88 | 2.6% | 40 | 36.8 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $3.70 | 2.5% | 44 | 36.8 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.65 | 2.5% | 33 | 36.8 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $3.29 | 2.2% | 0 | 36.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.25 | 2.2% | 33 | 36.5 | 0.90× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.93 | 1.9% | 44 | 36.0 | 1.22× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $2.82 | 1.9% | 39 | 35.8 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.60 | 0.9% | 33 | 29.0 | 1.14× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1.47 | 0.7% | 25 | 27.5 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $1.05 | 0.4% | 19 | 21.7 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-triqua-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $0.51 | 0.1% | 5 | 10.1 | 0.49× |
| [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 5 | 8.9 | 0.56× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/emerald/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=emerald)

[Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) [HyperionRax](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/HyperionRax) $6.10 $6.01 0.99x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) [Light](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Light) $6.10 $3.65 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) [BongHits](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/BongHits) $6.10 $4.79 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-battle-scarred) [BongHits](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/BongHits) $6.10 $4.30 0.70x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-well-worn) [Sw1tch](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Sw1tch) $6.10 $3.70 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-field-tested) [Sw1tch](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Sw1tch) $6.10 $5.96 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $6.10 $4.08 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC

[Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) [MOU](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MOU) $6.10 $4.52 0.74x 2026-11-11 10:46 UTC

[Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) [MOU](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MOU) $6.10 $6.01 0.99x 2026-11-11 10:46 UTC

[Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) [MOU](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MOU) $6.10 $6.01 0.99x 2026-11-11 10:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $6.10 | 110.72% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $6.10 | 110.26% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $6.10 | 108.63% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.10 | 111.22% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $6.10 | 112.61% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $6.10 | 108.20% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $6.10 | 104.76% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $6.10 | 106.35% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $6.10 | 109.54% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $6.10 | 107.52% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 6.3% gold 0.2% covert 1.3% mil spec 1.7% Ancient 0.7% #d32ee6 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 13.5% restricted 29.7% Uncommon 0.5% Classified 0.5% pink 1.2% Mythical 5.8% Industrial Grade 0.6% milspec 4.3% consumer 4.3% Consumer Grade 9.9% #4b69ff 4.5% Restricted 9.1% #8847ff 4.4% Rare 1.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 110.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $110.72 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt