---
title: "EMPRESS case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EMPRESS ($12.00) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 117.14% from 48 items with odds, observed 85.78% over 450 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [EMPRESS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · EMPRESS

A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 117.14% · EV $14.06 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.78% · 450 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68 openings · below min

7 days · 86.11% ±23.37 405 openings

30 days · 85.78% ±22.07 450 openings

since tracking started · 85.78% ±22.07 450 openings

36.5% 95.3% 154.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 108.41% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (63.71% – 107.85%, 450 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress?window=24h) | 68 | 95.21% ±58.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress?window=7d) | 405 | 86.11% ±23.4 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress) | 450 | 85.78% ±22.1 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/empress?window=all) | 450 | 85.78% ±22.1 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 450 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 562 | $437 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 402 | $313 | 5.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 296 | $230 | 5.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 235 | $183 | 5.5% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $145 | 5.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Copperhead (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $111 | 5.5% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $101 | 5.5% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 491 | $59.59 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 491 | $59.52 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 409 | $43.87 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 339 | $32.11 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.26× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 330 | $30.71 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 266 | $21.43 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 247 | $18.99 | 0.5% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 238 | $17.87 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-fleet-flock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 226 | $16.38 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.01× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $16.27 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $14.87 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $14.59 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $14.28 | 0.5% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.31× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $13.38 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) | 1 in 199 | $13.18 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 197 | $13.04 | 0.5% | 7 | 2.3 | 3.07× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $12.06 | 0.5% | 14 | 2.4 | 5.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $11.86 | 3.4% | 21 | 18.4 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $11.77 | 3.4% | 3 | 18.4 | 0.16× |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $11.29 | 3.3% | 14 | 18.7 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $10.92 | 3.2% | 18 | 18.8 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $10.61 | 3.2% | 13 | 18.9 | 0.69× |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $9.76 | 3.0% | 12 | 19.2 | 0.62× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $9.27 | 2.8% | 19 | 19.4 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $9.16 | 2.8% | 13 | 19.4 | 0.67× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $9.14 | 2.8% | 19 | 19.4 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.73 | 2.7% | 23 | 19.5 | 1.18× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $7.88 | 2.4% | 22 | 19.6 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $7.86 | 2.4% | 25 | 19.6 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $7.22 | 2.2% | 19 | 19.6 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $7.08 | 2.2% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $7.07 | 2.2% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $6.82 | 2.1% | 0 | 19.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $6.73 | 2.1% | 24 | 19.6 | 1.23× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $6.70 | 2.1% | 20 | 19.6 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $4.97 | 1.5% | 20 | 18.6 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $3.38 | 0.9% | 17 | 16.0 | 1.06× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $2.01 | 0.4% | 18 | 11.3 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.17 | 0.1% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $0.90 | 0.1% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.52× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-akoben-battle-scarred) | 1 in 495 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/empress/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=empress)

[XM1014 | Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-well-worn) [Andoyea\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Andoyea*-898701) $12.00 $9.16 0.76x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) [Kot3](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Kot3) $12.00 $9.27 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-blind-spot-field-tested) [Kot3](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Kot3) $12.00 $10.92 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-blind-spot-field-tested) [knownaim](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/knownaim) $12.00 $10.92 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) [diyarcan](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/diyarcan) $12.00 $13.18 1.10x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) [diyarcan](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/diyarcan) $12.00 $7.22 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $12.00 $9.14 0.76x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Djinn (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-djinn-field-tested) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $12.00 $14.28 1.19x 2026-11-11 11:04 UTC

[MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $12.00 $6.70 0.56x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[XM1014 | Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-well-worn) [elis.tor](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/elis.tor) $12.00 $9.16 0.76x 2026-11-11 08:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $12.00 | 117.14% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $12.00 | 107.60% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $12.00 | 108.06% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $12.00 | 108.29% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $12.00 | 110.00% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $12.00 | 109.10% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $12.00 | 101.73% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $12.00 | 103.55% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $12.00 | 110.23% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $12.00 | 104.70% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.2% covert 1.3% classified 7.3% milspec 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 9.5% #d32ee6 1.2% restricted 19.2% Legendary 4.9% #4b69ff 4.9% mil spec 0.5% Classified 0.5% industrial 17.0% pink 8.7% Consumer Grade 6.8% #d32ce6 4.4% #8847ff 4.1% violet 3.6% Mythical 1.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 117.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $117.14 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt