---
title: "EVIL case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EVIL ($3.58) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 104.23% from 61 items with odds, observed 73.74% over 676 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [EVIL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · EVIL

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil?window=all)

Price · $3.58

Advertised RTP · 104.23% · EV $3.73 from 61 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.74% · 676 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.92% ±49.14 131 openings

7 days · 73.02% ±24.43 528 openings

30 days · 73.74% ±21.59 676 openings

since tracking started · 73.74% ±21.59 676 openings

26.0% 75.8% 125.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 104.74% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (52.15% – 95.33%, 676 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil?window=24h) | 131 | 75.92% ±49.1 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil?window=7d) | 528 | 73.02% ±24.4 | −2.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil) | 676 | 73.74% ±21.6 | −2.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/evil?window=all) | 676 | 73.74% ±21.6 | −2.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 61 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 676 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 3,124 | $299 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,911 | $183 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,280 | $122 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,230 | $118 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 984 | $94.12 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 773 | $73.88 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 701 | $67.05 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 458 | $43.82 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 366 | $35.04 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 1 in 341 | $32.60 | 2.6% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 339 | $32.45 | 2.6% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 244 | $23.37 | 2.6% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 239 | $22.88 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 209 | $20.00 | 2.6% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $18.44 | 2.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 1 in 384 | $13.76 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 382 | $13.66 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 365 | $12.61 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $10.86 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 309 | $9.58 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-well-worn) | 1 in 302 | $9.21 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 301 | $9.15 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 292 | $8.69 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 235 | $6.09 | 0.7% | 8 | 2.9 | 2.79× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 232 | $5.95 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 224 | $5.59 | 0.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 193 | $4.37 | 0.6% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.71× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 193 | $4.36 | 0.6% | 16 | 3.5 | 4.56× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 191 | $4.30 | 0.6% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187 | $4.16 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $4.10 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $3.94 | 0.6% | 7 | 3.7 | 1.88× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) | 1 in 176 | $3.73 | 0.6% | 19 | 3.9 | 4.93× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.50 | 2.8% | 33 | 20.5 | 1.61× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.50 | 2.8% | 18 | 20.5 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $3.31 | 2.8% | 18 | 20.9 | 0.86× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.30 | 2.7% | 27 | 21.0 | 1.29× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $2.82 | 2.5% | 30 | 22.0 | 1.36× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.76 | 2.4% | 18 | 22.2 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.43 | 2.2% | 22 | 22.8 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $2.42 | 2.2% | 25 | 22.8 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.36 | 2.1% | 26 | 22.9 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.27 | 2.1% | 20 | 23.0 | 0.87× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.19 | 2.0% | 28 | 23.1 | 1.21× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $2.10 | 1.9% | 16 | 23.2 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.00 | 1.8% | 26 | 23.3 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.88 | 1.7% | 29 | 23.3 | 1.24× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.84 | 1.7% | 22 | 23.3 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.84 | 1.7% | 29 | 23.3 | 1.24× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-red-tire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.83 | 1.7% | 19 | 23.3 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.74 | 1.6% | 22 | 23.3 | 0.95× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.69 | 1.6% | 20 | 23.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.60 | 1.5% | 17 | 23.1 | 0.74× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.48 | 1.3% | 16 | 22.9 | 0.70× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.47 | 1.3% | 20 | 22.9 | 0.87× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.16 | 1.0% | 17 | 21.7 | 0.78× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.16 | 1.0% | 24 | 21.7 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $1.08 | 0.9% | 15 | 21.2 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.73 | 0.5% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $0.44 | 0.2% | 12 | 12.0 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.39 | 0.2% | 9 | 10.7 | 0.84× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/evil/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=evil)

[MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) [El Chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/El%20Chapo) $3.58 $2.10 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[AWP | Black Nile (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-well-worn) [Iveza](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Iveza) $3.58 $3.50 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) [Craiz](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Craiz) $3.58 $1.16 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) [Cardoso](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Cardoso) $3.58 $1.84 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) [PoyK\*-\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/PoyK*-*-215207) $3.58 $0.73 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) [rzkai](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/rzkai) $3.58 $1.74 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) [god with me](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/god%20with%20me) $3.58 $2.19 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[MAC-10 | Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) [#КБУ / ХВОСТ](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%23%D0%9A%D0%91%D0%A3%20%2F%20%D0%A5%D0%92%D0%9E%D0%A1%D0%A2) $3.58 $3.31 0.93x 2026-11-11 11:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Kami (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-kami-field-tested) [MOU](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MOU) $3.58 $2.76 0.77x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) [Zombal'nyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Zombal'nyy) $3.58 $2.19 0.61x 2026-11-11 10:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $3.58 | 104.23% | 61 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $3.58 | 104.83% | 61 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.58 | 103.11% | 61 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.58 | 105.45% | 61 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $3.58 | 106.70% | 61 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $3.58 | 105.77% | 61 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $3.58 | 104.06% | 61 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $3.58 | 103.98% | 61 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $3.58 | 104.62% | 61 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.58 | 105.64% | 61 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% restricted 34.8% classified 13.1% violet 11.3% pink 0.8% Mythical 3.8% #d32ee6 3.6% blue 3.0% #8847ff 9.9% Mil Spec 3.3% Consumer Grade 3.4% Restricted 5.2% industrial 3.4% milspec 3.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 104.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $104.23 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt