---
title: "FALCHION case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FALCHION ($1.75) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 99.76% from 41 items with odds, observed 69.03% over 197 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [FALCHION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · FALCHION

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion?window=all)

Price · $1.75

Advertised RTP · 99.76% · EV $1.75 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 69.03% · 197 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 70.21% ±37.41 171 openings

30 days · 69.03% ±34.91 197 openings

since tracking started · 69.03% ±34.91 197 openings

19.0% 84.3% 149.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion?window=24h) | 57 | 84.25% ±64.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion?window=7d) | 171 | 70.21% ±37.4 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion) | 197 | 69.03% ±34.9 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/falchion?window=all) | 197 | 69.03% ±34.9 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 197 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 1,619 | $102 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 1,032 | $64.71 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 554 | $34.77 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 430 | $26.94 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $23.37 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 334 | $20.95 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 325 | $20.41 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 1 in 220 | $13.81 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $10.23 | 3.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 146 | $9.14 | 3.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 360 | $7.48 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 334 | $6.60 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $3.92 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 242 | $3.87 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 237 | $3.73 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $3.07 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $2.94 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $2.92 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198 | $2.77 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-irradiated-alert-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $2.42 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 175 | $2.26 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.67× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-field-tested) | 1 in 166 | $2.05 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 155 | $1.84 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-army-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $1.79 | 0.7% | 10 | 1.3 | 7.74× |
| [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.68 | 5.2% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.60 | 5.0% | 12 | 10.8 | 1.11× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.60 | 5.0% | 6 | 10.8 | 0.55× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.55 | 4.9% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.39 | 4.5% | 8 | 11.2 | 0.71× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $1.18 | 4.0% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.05 | 3.5% | 17 | 11.6 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.03 | 3.5% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $1.01 | 3.4% | 16 | 11.6 | 1.38× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.87 | 2.9% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.73 | 2.4% | 9 | 11.2 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.64 | 2.0% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.60 | 1.9% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Riot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.49 | 1.4% | 10 | 9.8 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.48 | 1.4% | 12 | 9.7 | 1.24× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Army Sheen (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-army-sheen-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.39 | 1.0% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Contrast Spray (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-contrast-spray-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.17 | 0.2% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.96× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/falchion/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=falchion)

[MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.75 $1.68 0.96x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-well-worn) Hidden $1.75 $0.49 0.28x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $1.75 $1.60 0.92x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.75 $0.64 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) Hidden $1.75 $1.01 0.58x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $1.75 $3.73 2.13x 2026-11-11 16:35 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) [cr0k](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/cr0k) $1.75 $0.48 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) [cr0k](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/cr0k) $1.75 $1.55 0.89x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) [Keusdy](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Keusdy) $1.75 $0.62 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-minimal-wear) [M4thy](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/M4thy) $1.75 $0.87 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.75 | 99.76% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.75 | 95.96% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.75 | 102.55% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.75 | 103.19% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.75 | 101.76% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.75 | 102.30% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.75 | 98.85% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.75 | 98.76% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.75 | 101.07% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.75 | 102.44% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% Mil Spec Grade 6.2% classified 1.5% restricted 8.5% pink 0.5% Classified 0.3% Consumer Grade 7.5% #8847ff 0.9% mil spec 18.6% consumer 0.5% violet 11.9% #4b69ff 5.4% Mythical 5.5% Industrial Grade 5.7% blue 11.3% Rare 5.7% milspec 9.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 99.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $99.76 on average: an expected loss of $0.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt