---
title: "FRACTURE case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FRACTURE ($0.69) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 104.99% from 47 items with odds, observed 64.84% over 879 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [FRACTURE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · FRACTURE

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture?window=all)

Price · $0.69

Advertised RTP · 104.99% · EV $0.72 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 64.84% · 879 openings, odds method

Variance · 21.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 66.24% ±63.24 205 openings

7 days · 66.01% ±31.92 800 openings

30 days · 64.84% ±30.49 879 openings

since tracking started · 64.84% ±30.49 879 openings

2.5% 66.3% 130.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 100.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (34.35% – 95.32%, 879 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture?window=24h) | 205 | 66.24% ±63.2 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture?window=7d) | 800 | 66.01% ±31.9 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture) | 879 | 64.84% ±30.5 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/fracture?window=all) | 879 | 64.84% ±30.5 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 879 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 10,858 | $243 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 3,269 | $73.26 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 1,942 | $43.52 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-well-worn) | 1 in 1,067 | $23.91 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 839 | $18.80 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 611 | $13.70 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 525 | $11.77 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 502 | $11.25 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 435 | $9.76 | 3.1% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 282 | $6.31 | 3.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 260 | $5.82 | 3.1% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 202 | $4.52 | 3.1% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $4.02 | 3.1% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.20× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 387 | $2.94 | 1.0% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.76× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 289 | $1.80 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 280 | $1.71 | 0.8% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 264 | $1.55 | 0.8% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.20× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-battle-scarred) | 1 in 244 | $1.36 | 0.8% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $1.01 | 0.7% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× |
| [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $0.98 | 0.7% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 190 | $0.90 | 0.7% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-assault-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $0.89 | 0.7% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Clay Ambush (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-clay-ambush-well-worn) | 1 in 173 | $0.77 | 0.6% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| [M249 \| Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-well-worn) | 1 in 172 | $0.76 | 0.6% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 171 | $0.76 | 0.6% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 171 | $0.76 | 0.6% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.68 | 4.3% | 42 | 39.9 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.68 | 4.3% | 4 | 40.0 | 0.10× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Crypsis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-crypsis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.67 | 4.2% | 34 | 40.1 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.62 | 4.0% | 42 | 41.3 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Tread (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.60 | 3.9% | 53 | 41.7 | 1.27× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.56 | 3.8% | 49 | 42.4 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-ventilators-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.54 | 3.6% | 48 | 42.8 | 1.12× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.46 | 3.2% | 32 | 44.1 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Turf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-turf-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.45 | 3.1% | 54 | 44.2 | 1.22× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.43 | 3.0% | 44 | 44.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.38 | 2.6% | 39 | 44.7 | 0.87× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.33 | 2.3% | 22 | 44.4 | 0.50× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.29 | 2.0% | 40 | 43.8 | 0.91× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.24 | 1.6% | 51 | 41.9 | 1.22× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.21 | 1.3% | 57 | 40.1 | 1.42× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.15 | 0.8% | 37 | 34.5 | 1.07× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.15 | 0.8% | 40 | 34.2 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.11 | 0.5% | 35 | 28.0 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-gnarled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.10 | 0.4% | 27 | 24.6 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.09 | 0.3% | 37 | 23.2 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ensnared-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $0.08 | 0.2% | 32 | 19.6 | 1.64× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/fracture/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=fracture)

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Crypsis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-crypsis-minimal-wear) [youneverseemeinamiri](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/youneverseemeinamiri) $0.69 $0.67 0.97x 2026-11-11 11:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-turf-field-tested) [| Björn |](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%7C%20Bj%C3%B6rn%20%7C) $0.69 $0.45 0.66x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-gnarled-battle-scarred) [SexDemonKiller666](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/SexDemonKiller666) $0.69 $0.10 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-battle-scarred) [ToKe](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ToKe) $0.69 $0.11 0.16x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-turf-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 $0.45 0.66x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $0.69 $0.89 1.30x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Tread (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.69 $0.60 0.87x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) Hidden $0.69 $0.43 0.62x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.69 $0.68 0.98x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.69 $0.11 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.69 | 104.99% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.69 | 101.12% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.69 | 99.75% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.69 | 100.24% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.69 | 101.52% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.69 | 101.23% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.69 | 98.92% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.69 | 99.39% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.69 | 98.45% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.69 | 101.76% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.9% covert knife 0.0% covert 0.1% pink 0.1% classified 0.8% Restricted 4.7% Industrial Grade 0.6% Legendary 0.9% Mil Spec Grade 6.4% Consumer 0.3% #87c7ff 0.3% #8847ff 1.0% restricted 5.8% milspec 30.7% Consumer Grade 11.0% mil spec 9.5% Rare 15.0% #4b69ff 5.1% Common 3.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 105.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $104.99 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt