---
title: "HORIZON case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HORIZON ($2.00) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 104.74% from 47 items with odds, observed 72.40% over 87 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [HORIZON](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · HORIZON

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 104.74% · EV $2.09 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.40% · 87 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 60 openings · below min

30 days · 87 openings · below min

since tracking started · 87 openings · below min

-0.5% 253.0% 506.5%

**Small sample.** 87 openings and 15.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon?window=24h) | 3 | 148.70% ±357.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon?window=7d) | 60 | 69.84% ±81.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon) | 87 | 72.40% ±67.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/horizon?window=all) | 87 | 72.40% ±67.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,307 | $183 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 1,663 | $132 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,378 | $109 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 300 | $23.71 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 251 | $19.86 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 184 | $14.55 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $14.35 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 180 | $14.20 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-field-tested) | 1 in 438 | $9.31 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 389 | $7.64 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-retrobution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 343 | $6.20 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 328 | $5.77 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 326 | $5.71 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-reboot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 324 | $5.64 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 287 | $4.61 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 259 | $3.88 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $2.93 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 206 | $2.65 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $2.62 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $2.60 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [P2000 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $2.45 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-factory-new) | 1 in 174 | $2.00 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $2.00 | 3.7% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Mechanism (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-mechanism-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.99 | 3.7% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.87 | 3.5% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.83 | 3.4% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.81 | 3.4% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.80 | 3.4% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.74 | 3.3% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $1.70 | 3.2% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.64 | 3.1% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.73× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-red-tire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $1.59 | 3.0% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× |
| [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $1.56 | 3.0% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.53 | 2.9% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.43× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.42 | 2.7% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.72× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.10 | 2.1% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $1.07 | 2.0% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.05 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $1.01 | 1.9% | 8 | 3.4 | 2.38× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.00 | 1.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.97 | 1.8% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-snek-9-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.97 | 1.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.89 | 1.6% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.55 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.50 | 0.7% | 8 | 2.5 | 3.23× |
| [P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $0.36 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-cracked-opal-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $0.27 | 0.2% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.83× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/horizon/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=horizon)

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-capillary-minimal-wear) [i hate sex](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/i%20hate%20sex) $2.00 $1.05 0.52x 2026-11-11 10:24 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) [voyager](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/voyager) $2.00 $7.62 3.81x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Cracked Opal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-cracked-opal-well-worn) [Hiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Hiu) $2.00 $0.25 0.13x 2026-11-10 21:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-well-worn) [ILAY 🤟](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ILAY%20%F0%9F%A4%9F) $2.00 $1.76 0.88x 2026-11-10 15:06 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) [ILAY 🤟](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ILAY%20%F0%9F%A4%9F) $2.00 $1.83 0.91x 2026-11-10 15:06 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-field-tested) [ishhhh](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ishhhh) $2.00 $0.53 0.26x 2026-11-10 14:33 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) [Hog](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Hog) $2.00 $1.00 0.50x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC

[Souvenir Glock-18 | Red Tire (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-red-tire-battle-scarred) [Hog](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Hog) $2.00 $1.90 0.95x 2026-11-10 13:01 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) [pennyS](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/pennyS) $2.00 $0.97 0.49x 2026-11-09 21:48 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) [faze\_harboe](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/faze_harboe) $2.00 $0.97 0.49x 2026-11-09 20:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.00 | 104.74% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $2.00 | 108.42% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.00 | 98.98% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.00 | 95.00% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $2.00 | 101.63% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $2.00 | 102.38% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $2.00 | 101.43% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $2.00 | 103.91% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $2.00 | 103.01% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $2.00 | 103.13% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Classified 0.1% Covert 0.1% #d32ce6 0.9% violet 1.0% classified 1.4% restricted 21.0% Restricted 12.5% pink 0.4% consumer 8.4% Consumer Grade 0.5% Industrial Grade 12.3% Uncommon 3.9% Mil Spec Grade 13.3% Mythical 3.9% mil spec 12.7% milspec 7.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 104.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $104.74 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt