---
title: "ILLUSION case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ILLUSION ($24.73) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.61% from 46 items with odds, observed 67.42% over 87 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [ILLUSION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · ILLUSION

A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion?window=all)

Price · $24.73

Advertised RTP · 92.61% · EV $22.90 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 67.42% · 87 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 77 openings · below min

30 days · 87 openings · below min

since tracking started · 87 openings · below min

-0.5% 91.0% 182.5%

**Small sample.** 87 openings and 5.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion?window=24h) | 20 | 84.65% ±97.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion?window=7d) | 77 | 71.40% ±48.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion) | 87 | 67.42% ±46.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/illusion?window=all) | 87 | 67.42% ±46.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,224 | $1,437 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 799 | $516 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 781 | $504 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 579 | $374 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 350 | $226 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 350 | $226 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 318 | $205 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 317 | $205 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 311 | $201 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 305 | $197 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 304 | $197 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 223 | $144 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 206 | $133 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198 | $128 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 196 | $127 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $125 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 444 | $122 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 404 | $111 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 318 | $87.65 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $80.96 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 214 | $59.04 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 198 | $54.63 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 196 | $53.89 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $51.18 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 181 | $49.78 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $46.54 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $46.03 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 163 | $44.84 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 159 | $43.82 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $36.64 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $36.52 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 131 | $36.17 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $35.82 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $32.27 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $32.11 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $19.09 | 0.8% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $16.59 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $15.69 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $14.51 | 3.2% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $14.24 | 3.7% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $12.78 | 3.9% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $11.77 | 4.1% | 11 | 7.0 | 1.58× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $7.90 | 3.4% | 11 | 8.7 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $7.01 | 3.4% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-field-tested) | 12.0% | $4.66 | 2.4% | 12 | 10.4 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-hive-field-tested) | 19.0% | $4.23 | 3.5% | 14 | 16.5 | 0.85× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/illusion/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=illusion)

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) [diyarcan](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/diyarcan) $24.73 $7.01 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $24.73 $11.77 0.48x 2026-11-11 11:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [shcherbakovnikitav](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/shcherbakovnikitav) $24.73 $11.77 0.48x 2026-11-11 08:25 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) [Stiler skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Stiler%20skins.army) $24.73 $34.91 1.41x 2026-11-11 01:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.73 $13.65 0.55x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.73 $13.65 0.55x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [sNr](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/sNr) $24.73 $18.48 0.75x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [sNr](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/sNr) $24.73 $11.75 0.48x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $24.73 $4.56 0.18x 2026-11-10 23:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $24.73 $11.22 0.45x 2026-11-10 23:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $24.73 | 92.61% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $24.73 | 91.27% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $24.73 | 91.59% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $24.73 | 90.02% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $24.73 | 89.65% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $24.73 | 89.43% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $24.73 | 88.99% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $24.73 | 90.88% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $24.73 | 90.76% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $24.73 | 89.20% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 14.3% gold 0.1% red 0.8% Ancient 0.9% restricted 8.0% classified 39.0% industrial 8.0% #d32ee6 10.0% milspec 19.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.61 on average: an expected loss of $7.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt