---
title: "JACKPOT-CASE case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "JACKPOT-CASE ($319.99) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 119.57% from 23 items with odds, observed 29.03% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [JACKPOT-CASE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · JACKPOT-CASE

A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case?window=all)

Price · $319.99

Advertised RTP · 119.57% · EV $382.62 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 29.03% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

-0.5% 183.3% 367.0%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case?window=7d) | 4 | 29.03% ±337.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case) | 4 | 29.03% ±337.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/jackpot-case?window=all) | 4 | 29.03% ±337.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $5,186 | 60.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $1,347 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $1,099 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $981 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $653 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $302 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | — | $280 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | — | $208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $202 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $200 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $187 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $186 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $184 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $183 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $182 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $147 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $143 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $104 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $94.89 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $93.01 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $86.59 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $85.23 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $80.04 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $74.34 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-well-worn) | 18.0% | $40.64 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/jackpot-case/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=jackpot-case)

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [Mai](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Mai) $320 $98.59 0.31x 2026-11-08 09:59 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) [Ra's](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Ra's) $320 $78.31 0.24x 2026-11-06 19:14 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [Ra's](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Ra's) $320 $89.21 0.28x 2026-11-06 19:11 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [ConVic](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ConVic) $320 $105 0.33x 2026-11-06 13:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $320 | 119.57% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $320 | 130.45% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $320 | 132.57% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $320 | 132.81% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $320 | 132.21% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $320 | 132.77% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $320 | 134.72% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $320 | 122.80% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $320 | 133.18% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $320 | 136.94% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 4.5% restricted 0.9% covert 15.4% rare 1.9% covert knife 46.2% classified 0.0% Covert 1.0% extraordinary 30.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 119.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $119.57 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt