---
title: "KATANA case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KATANA ($2.40) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 119.23% from 59 items with odds, observed 80.62% over 2,357 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [KATANA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · KATANA

A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana?window=all)

Price · $2.40

Advertised RTP · 119.23% · EV $2.86 from 59 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.62% · 2,357 openings, odds method

Variance · 14.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74.82% ±47.34 246 openings

7 days · 79.54% ±16.54 1,979 openings

30 days · 80.62% ±15.08 2,357 openings

since tracking started · 80.62% ±15.08 2,357 openings

27.0% 75.0% 123.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 117.41% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (65.54% – 95.70%, 2,357 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana?window=24h) | 246 | 74.82% ±47.3 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana?window=7d) | 1,979 | 79.54% ±16.5 | −4.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana) | 2,357 | 80.62% ±15.1 | −4.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/katana?window=all) | 2,357 | 80.62% ±15.1 | −4.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,357 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 2,832 | $249 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 2,399 | $211 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,301 | $114 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,049 | $92.18 | 3.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 809 | $71.04 | 3.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 799 | $70.21 | 3.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 604 | $53.05 | 3.1% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 470 | $41.33 | 3.1% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 433 | $38.07 | 3.1% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 336 | $29.52 | 3.1% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 283 | $24.86 | 3.1% | 2 | 8.3 | 0.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176 | $15.45 | 3.1% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $12.31 | 3.1% | 10 | 16.8 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 530 | $10.49 | 0.7% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× |
| [AUG \| Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) | 1 in 404 | $6.68 | 0.6% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.51× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 320 | $4.53 | 0.5% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 313 | $4.37 | 0.5% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 312 | $4.35 | 0.5% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 294 | $3.93 | 0.5% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 292 | $3.89 | 0.5% | 12 | 8.1 | 1.49× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $3.77 | 0.5% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 285 | $3.74 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 281 | $3.65 | 0.5% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.43× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 271 | $3.44 | 0.4% | 75 | 8.7 | 8.63× |
| [MAC-10 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 268 | $3.38 | 0.4% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 253 | $3.06 | 0.4% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 247 | $2.95 | 0.4% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 230 | $2.62 | 0.4% | 14 | 10.2 | 1.37× |
| [AUG \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $2.46 | 0.4% | 73 | 10.6 | 6.87× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | $2.43 | 0.4% | 14 | 10.7 | 1.31× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | $2.43 | 0.4% | 9 | 10.7 | 0.84× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.36 | 2.9% | 27 | 81.7 | 0.33× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.33 | 2.8% | 59 | 81.9 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $2.31 | 2.8% | 72 | 82.1 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.17 | 2.7% | 98 | 83.1 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-heavy-metal-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.16 | 2.7% | 97 | 83.2 | 1.17× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $2.10 | 2.6% | 86 | 83.5 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.10 | 2.6% | 85 | 83.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $2.00 | 2.5% | 93 | 84.1 | 1.11× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.95 | 2.4% | 63 | 84.4 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.74 | 2.2% | 88 | 85.1 | 1.03× |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $1.70 | 2.1% | 96 | 85.2 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $1.68 | 2.1% | 81 | 85.2 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.68 | 2.1% | 77 | 85.2 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.66 | 2.1% | 87 | 85.2 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.63 | 2.1% | 76 | 85.2 | 0.89× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.60 | 2.0% | 100 | 85.2 | 1.17× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.58 | 2.0% | 90 | 85.1 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.56 | 2.0% | 88 | 85.1 | 1.03× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.52 | 1.9% | 77 | 85.0 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-petroglyph-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.40 | 1.8% | 86 | 84.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dezastre-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.30 | 1.6% | 82 | 83.7 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.15 | 1.4% | 78 | 81.8 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $0.88 | 1.0% | 65 | 75.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Windblown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-windblown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.57 | 0.5% | 43 | 59.3 | 0.73× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $0.52 | 0.4% | 48 | 55.4 | 0.87× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.42 | 0.3% | 47 | 46.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 33 | 33.7 | 0.98× |
| [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 171 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.24× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/katana/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=katana)

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) [Godwill \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Godwill%20%3C3) $2.40 $1.74 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-field-tested) [EKB](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/EKB) $2.40 $1.95 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) [EKB](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/EKB) $2.40 $2.36 0.98x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Nova | Walnut (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-field-tested) [EKB](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/EKB) $2.40 $1.63 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dezastre-factory-new) [EKB](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/EKB) $2.40 $1.30 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) [EKB](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/EKB) $2.40 $0.88 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) [EKB](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/EKB) $2.40 $1.66 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-field-tested) [Kot3](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Kot3) $2.40 $1.95 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[G3SG1 | Scavenger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) [Semozu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Semozu) $2.40 $0.53 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) [Egea 1.3mJet](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Egea%201.3mJet) $2.40 $1.74 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.40 | 119.23% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $2.40 | 117.31% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.40 | 116.99% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.40 | 117.93% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $2.40 | 118.12% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $2.40 | 117.63% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $2.40 | 118.17% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $2.40 | 116.60% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $2.40 | 116.18% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $2.40 | 117.80% | 59 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% classified 2.0% restricted 20.4% Restricted 14.6% Classified 0.2% consumer 0.2% #8847ff 1.1% #d32ee6 0.3% Rare 0.3% mil spec 0.4% Consumer Grade 0.4% Common 4.1% Industrial Grade 4.0% Mil Spec Grade 9.5% violet 9.4% Mythical 12.7% milspec 8.7% #4b69ff 3.6% Mil Spec 3.5% gray 3.5% industrial 0.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 119.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $119.23 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt