---
title: "LOADOUT case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "LOADOUT ($1.49) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 155.87% from 113 items with odds, observed 88.01% over 1,218 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [LOADOUT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · LOADOUT

A case on DROP.SKIN (gun\_room), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 155.87% · EV $2.32 from 113 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.01% · 1,218 openings, odds method

Variance · 57.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 43 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 185 openings · below min

7 days · 87.63% ±44.07 1,076 openings

30 days · 88.01% ±41.33 1,218 openings

since tracking started · 88.01% ±41.33 1,218 openings

-0.5% 90.0% 180.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 151.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (46.68% – 129.34%, 1,218 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout?window=24h) | 185 | 70.14% ±109.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout?window=7d) | 1,076 | 87.63% ±44.1 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout) | 1,218 | 88.01% ±41.3 | −3.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/loadout?window=all) | 1,218 | 88.01% ±41.3 | −3.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 113 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,218 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $425 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 7,283 | $341 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,949 | $325 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 4,158 | $194 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 3,626 | $170 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,561 | $167 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 2,904 | $136 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 2,417 | $113 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,091 | $97.76 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,863 | $87.10 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,729 | $80.83 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,685 | $78.80 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,544 | $72.19 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $65.84 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,335 | $62.42 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,141 | $53.34 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 1,066 | $49.83 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 931 | $43.52 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 889 | $41.58 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 1 in 688 | $32.17 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-jungle-dashed-well-worn) | 1 in 620 | $28.97 | 2.0% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 563 | $26.31 | 2.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-hand-brake-factory-new) | 1 in 395 | $18.45 | 2.0% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [Souvenir Negev \| Infrastructure (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-negev-infrastructure-well-worn) | 1 in 378 | $17.66 | 2.0% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.24× |
| [Souvenir MP7 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 344 | $16.09 | 2.0% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-marina-battle-scarred) | 1 in 340 | $15.89 | 2.0% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $15.55 | 2.0% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-well-worn) | 1 in 253 | $11.82 | 2.0% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 240 | $11.21 | 2.0% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 168 | $7.88 | 2.0% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 641 | $6.62 | 0.4% | 7 | 1.9 | 3.69× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-retrobution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 617 | $6.20 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 600 | $5.92 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-battle-scarred) | 1 in 589 | $5.75 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) | 1 in 580 | $5.59 | 0.4% | 8 | 2.1 | 3.81× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 555 | $5.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 541 | $4.99 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-new-roots-battle-scarred) | 1 in 535 | $4.89 | 0.4% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.20× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 510 | $4.51 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) | 1 in 497 | $4.32 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 485 | $4.16 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 474 | $4.00 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 465 | $3.87 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-field-tested) | 1 in 458 | $3.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-well-worn) | 1 in 399 | $3.00 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.66× |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 361 | $2.54 | 0.3% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.08× |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 346 | $2.37 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-well-worn) | 1 in 342 | $2.32 | 0.3% | 8 | 3.6 | 2.25× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 336 | $2.26 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 330 | $2.19 | 0.3% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 327 | $2.16 | 0.3% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 322 | $2.10 | 0.3% | 9 | 3.8 | 2.38× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 317 | $2.04 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 300 | $1.86 | 0.3% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.48× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-well-worn) | 1 in 300 | $1.86 | 0.3% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.72× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-field-tested) | 1 in 290 | $1.76 | 0.3% | 9 | 4.2 | 2.14× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 289 | $1.75 | 0.3% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-well-worn) | 1 in 285 | $1.71 | 0.3% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 285 | $1.71 | 0.3% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-field-tested) | 1 in 277 | $1.63 | 0.3% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-well-worn) | 1 in 276 | $1.63 | 0.3% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.59× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 268 | $1.55 | 0.2% | 13 | 4.5 | 2.86× |
| [Negev \| Dazzle (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dazzle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 265 | $1.51 | 0.2% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.74× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-well-worn) | 1 in 263 | $1.50 | 0.2% | 15 | 4.6 | 3.24× |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $1.46 | 1.0% | 0 | 19.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $1.45 | 1.0% | 15 | 20.0 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $1.42 | 1.0% | 33 | 20.2 | 1.64× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cocoa-rampage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $1.36 | 1.0% | 20 | 20.6 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $1.35 | 1.0% | 26 | 20.7 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-powercore-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $1.33 | 1.0% | 20 | 20.9 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $1.32 | 1.0% | 12 | 20.9 | 0.57× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $1.30 | 1.0% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.09× |
| [XM1014 \| Urban Perforated (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-urban-perforated-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $1.23 | 0.9% | 29 | 21.5 | 1.35× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-polar-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $1.20 | 0.9% | 23 | 21.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $1.18 | 0.9% | 12 | 22.0 | 0.55× |
| [Souvenir P90 \| Verdant Growth (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-verdant-growth-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $1.14 | 0.9% | 18 | 22.2 | 0.81× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $1.10 | 0.9% | 34 | 22.5 | 1.51× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $1.07 | 0.9% | 27 | 22.7 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-lumen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $1.04 | 0.8% | 12 | 22.9 | 0.52× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-scumbria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $1.03 | 0.8% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $0.95 | 0.8% | 20 | 23.5 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.93 | 0.8% | 29 | 23.6 | 1.23× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $0.92 | 0.8% | 19 | 23.7 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $0.92 | 0.8% | 30 | 23.7 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $0.91 | 0.8% | 31 | 23.8 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-system-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.88 | 0.7% | 19 | 23.9 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.83 | 0.7% | 11 | 24.2 | 0.46× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.76 | 0.7% | 0 | 24.5 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $0.64 | 0.6% | 0 | 24.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $0.61 | 0.5% | 18 | 24.7 | 0.73× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $0.60 | 0.5% | 22 | 24.6 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.60 | 0.5% | 20 | 24.6 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| dev\_texture (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-dev-texture-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $0.59 | 0.5% | 21 | 24.6 | 0.85× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.58 | 0.5% | 29 | 24.6 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-motorized-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.52 | 0.4% | 21 | 24.3 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-triqua-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.51 | 0.4% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $0.41 | 0.3% | 15 | 23.1 | 0.65× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $0.40 | 0.3% | 25 | 22.9 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-oceanic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $0.39 | 0.3% | 26 | 22.8 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Assault (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-assault-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.38 | 0.3% | 19 | 22.6 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 22.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Assault (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-assault-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.38 | 0.3% | 19 | 22.5 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-junk-yard-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 25 | 21.2 | 1.18× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.31 | 0.2% | 17 | 20.9 | 0.81× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-azure-glyph-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.31 | 0.2% | 24 | 20.7 | 1.16× |
| [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-coolant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.30 | 0.2% | 22 | 20.5 | 1.07× |
| [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.29 | 0.2% | 21 | 20.2 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 13 | 17.6 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 29 | 16.2 | 1.79× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-triqua-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.4 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-inlay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 114 | $0.13 | 0.0% | 12 | 10.6 | 1.13× |
| [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-inlay-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $0.11 | 0.0% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/loadout/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=loadout)

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) [xantarespeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/xantarespeek) $1.49 $0.76 0.51x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Galil AR | Kami (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-well-worn) [xantarespeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/xantarespeek) $1.49 $1.86 1.25x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Azure Glyph (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-azure-glyph-well-worn) [xantarespeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/xantarespeek) $1.49 $0.31 0.21x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC

[UMP-45 | Briefing (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-well-worn) [Odin\_ne\_0din](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Odin_ne_0din) $1.49 $0.29 0.20x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-minimal-wear) [Odin\_ne\_0din](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Odin_ne_0din) $1.49 $0.38 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-polar-camo-well-worn) [ToNixX](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ToNixX) $1.49 $1.20 0.81x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | dev\_texture (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-dev-texture-battle-scarred) [ToNixX](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ToNixX) $1.49 $0.59 0.40x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) [ToNixX](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ToNixX) $1.49 $1.75 1.18x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

[SG 553 | Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) [ToNixX](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ToNixX) $1.49 $0.23 0.15x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-battle-scarred) [ToNixX](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ToNixX) $1.49 $0.58 0.39x 2026-11-11 10:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.49 | 155.87% | 113 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.49 | 153.93% | 113 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.49 | 149.18% | 113 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.49 | 150.04% | 113 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.49 | 148.73% | 113 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.49 | 149.89% | 113 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.49 | 155.26% | 113 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.49 | 151.97% | 113 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.49 | 147.37% | 113 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.49 | 146.86% | 113 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 0.2% 3 1.9% covert knife 0.1% Covert 0.0% restricted 7.6% Restricted 6.9% covert 0.5% Mil Spec Grade 9.1% #d32ee6 0.1% Legendary 0.1% Consumer Grade 6.2% classified 0.7% mil spec 3.0% industrial 0.5% Industrial Grade 6.4% Classified 0.3% violet 13.9% #87c7ff 0.3% Mythical 2.8% #8847ff 9.7% milspec 14.0% Common 2.1% blue 4.2% Uncommon 1.8% Rare 3.9% #4b69ff 3.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 155.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $155.87 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt