---
title: "LOTUS case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "LOTUS ($14.43) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 96.82% from 49 items with odds, observed 103.68% over 66 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [LOTUS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · LOTUS

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus?window=all)

Price · $14.43

Advertised RTP · 96.82% · EV $13.97 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 103.68% · 66 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 25 openings · below min

7 days · 59 openings · below min

30 days · 66 openings · below min

since tracking started · 66 openings · below min

12.5% 106.3% 200.0%

**Small sample.** 66 openings and 10.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus?window=24h) | 25 | 106.35% ±93.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus?window=7d) | 59 | 103.04% ±61.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus) | 66 | 103.68% ±57.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/lotus?window=all) | 66 | 103.68% ±57.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,523 | $920 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 617 | $373 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 336 | $203 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 316 | $191 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 215 | $130 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $92.09 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $81.66 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $73.74 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 499 | $69.87 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 458 | $60.49 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 452 | $59.16 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 348 | $38.33 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 318 | $32.89 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 278 | $26.31 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 268 | $24.80 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $22.14 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 241 | $20.76 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 239 | $20.50 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $20.41 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 231 | $19.32 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $18.08 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $16.26 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $16.19 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-djinn-well-worn) | 1 in 203 | $15.57 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 202 | $15.48 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198 | $15.00 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $14.58 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $14.40 | 4.2% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $13.63 | 4.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $13.41 | 4.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $11.45 | 3.6% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $11.15 | 3.5% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $10.66 | 3.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $10.23 | 3.3% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.68× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $10.16 | 3.3% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $10.14 | 3.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $9.97 | 3.2% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $8.25 | 2.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $7.74 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $7.52 | 2.5% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $6.06 | 1.9% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $5.83 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $4.89 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.06 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [Souvenir MP7 \| Tall Grass (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $2.92 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $2.65 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $2.24 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $2.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $1.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/lotus/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=lotus)

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-malachite-factory-new) [Semozu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Semozu) $14.43 $13.60 0.94x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $14.43 $10.23 0.71x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $14.43 $8.20 0.57x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) [csgoliga007](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/csgoliga007) $14.43 $2.07 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $14.43 $9.47 0.66x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $14.43 $14.23 0.99x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC

[MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $14.43 $11.15 0.77x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $14.43 $10.40 0.72x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $14.43 $18.41 1.28x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $14.43 $10.40 0.72x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $14.43 | 96.82% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $14.43 | 99.12% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $14.43 | 97.67% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $14.43 | 98.62% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $14.43 | 100.23% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $14.43 | 99.58% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $14.43 | 98.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $14.43 | 106.57% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $14.43 | 102.18% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $14.43 | 104.05% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% sunny 0.3% classified 11.5% red 0.7% industrial 10.5% gold 0.8% mil spec 9.4% restricted 15.0% Covert 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 4.4% Restricted 0.4% blue 0.5% violet 5.0% #d32ee6 4.2% Mythical 14.5% #8847ff 9.0% Classified 4.5% Industrial 3.3% consumer 2.7% Mil Spec 2.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 96.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $96.82 on average: an expected loss of $3.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt