---
title: "MEGAKNIGHT case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "MEGAKNIGHT ($23.40) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 127.24% from 43 items with odds, observed 71.76% over 53 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [MEGAKNIGHT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · MEGAKNIGHT

A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight?window=all)

Price · $23.40

Advertised RTP · 127.24% · EV $29.78 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.76% · 53 openings, odds method

Variance · 20.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 48 openings · below min

30 days · 53 openings · below min

since tracking started · 53 openings · below min

-0.5% 326.5% 653.5%

**Small sample.** 53 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight?window=24h) | 2 | 23.61% ±629.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight?window=7d) | 48 | 71.38% ±127.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight) | 53 | 71.76% ±121.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/megaknight?window=all) | 53 | 71.76% ±121.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,711 | $2,288 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,234 | $1,650 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 935 | $1,250 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 684 | $914 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 443 | $593 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $334 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 239 | $320 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $247 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 172 | $230 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $224 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $147 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $135 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $130 | 4.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 337 | $114 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 326 | $110 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 316 | $107 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 297 | $100 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 256 | $86.50 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 221 | $74.93 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $64.96 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $60.47 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 178 | $60.13 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 177 | $59.98 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 176 | $59.52 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 173 | $58.48 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 171 | $57.76 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $57.23 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 134 | $45.41 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 131 | $44.40 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $41.63 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 117 | $39.55 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $33.77 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $33.68 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $30.59 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $14.40 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $12.74 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.73 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $9.78 | 2.3% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.62× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $7.72 | 2.3% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $5.80 | 1.9% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 12.0% | $5.68 | 2.3% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 14.0% | $4.78 | 2.2% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.06 | 2.7% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/megaknight/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=megaknight)

[StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.40 $5.62 0.24x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) [sNr](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/sNr) $23.40 $5.43 0.23x 2026-11-11 00:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-battle-scarred) Hidden $23.40 $7.86 0.34x 2026-11-10 03:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) Hidden $23.40 $44.97 1.92x 2026-11-10 03:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-battle-scarred) [racheNNN368](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/racheNNN368) $23.40 $7.86 0.34x 2026-11-10 03:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) [voyager](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/voyager) $23.40 $130 5.58x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) [sam1e](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/sam1e) $23.40 $9.24 0.39x 2026-11-09 19:53 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) [JEFF](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/JEFF) $23.40 $3.94 0.17x 2026-11-09 19:24 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) [JEFF](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/JEFF) $23.40 $3.94 0.17x 2026-11-09 19:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) [JEFF](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/JEFF) $23.40 $46.32 1.98x 2026-11-09 19:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $23.40 | 127.24% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $23.40 | 128.07% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $23.40 | 120.49% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $23.40 | 128.69% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $23.40 | 127.81% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $23.40 | 128.04% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $23.40 | 126.60% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $23.40 | 126.80% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $23.40 | 128.46% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $23.40 | 128.66% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.5% #ffd700 0.1% covert 16.1% gold 0.6% red 0.8% Ancient 1.0% classified 11.0% pink 5.0% #8847ff 21.0% restricted 10.0% Legendary 14.0% Restricted 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 127.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $127.24 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt