---
title: "MONSTER case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MONSTER ($1.90) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 102.27% from 53 items with odds, observed 75.84% over 4,553 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [MONSTER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · MONSTER

A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster?window=all)

Price · $1.90

Advertised RTP · 102.27% · EV $1.94 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.84% · 4,553 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.93% ±23.69 872 openings

7 days · 76.53% ±10.95 4,300 openings

30 days · 75.84% ±10.63 4,553 openings

since tracking started · 75.84% ±10.63 4,553 openings

56.5% 82.3% 108.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 107.05% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (65.21% – 86.47%, 4,553 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster?window=24h) | 872 | 80.93% ±23.7 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster?window=7d) | 4,300 | 76.53% ±10.9 | −5.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster) | 4,553 | 75.84% ±10.6 | −5.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/monster?window=all) | 4,553 | 75.84% ±10.6 | −5.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,554 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,616 | $207 | 2.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,989 | $114 | 2.9% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 1,073 | $61.43 | 2.9% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 941 | $53.89 | 2.9% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 869 | $49.80 | 2.9% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 793 | $45.41 | 2.9% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 734 | $42.01 | 2.9% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 619 | $35.43 | 2.9% | 0 | 7.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 615 | $35.23 | 2.9% | 0 | 7.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 354 | $20.30 | 2.9% | 1 | 12.8 | 0.08× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $14.00 | 2.9% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-well-worn) | 1 in 240 | $13.72 | 2.9% | 16 | 19.0 | 0.84× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $13.02 | 2.9% | 37 | 20.0 | 1.85× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-well-worn) | 1 in 223 | $12.79 | 2.9% | 29 | 20.4 | 1.42× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $12.70 | 2.9% | 34 | 20.5 | 1.66× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) | 1 in 214 | $12.27 | 2.9% | 23 | 21.3 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-well-worn) | 1 in 183 | $10.46 | 2.9% | 24 | 24.9 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-battle-scarred) | 1 in 174 | $9.97 | 2.9% | 19 | 26.2 | 0.73× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 171 | $9.79 | 2.9% | 19 | 26.6 | 0.71× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 280 | $6.48 | 1.2% | 11 | 16.3 | 0.68× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 244 | $5.66 | 1.2% | 21 | 18.7 | 1.13× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-well-worn) | 1 in 184 | $4.27 | 1.2% | 24 | 24.7 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $4.18 | 1.2% | 24 | 25.2 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 170 | $3.93 | 1.2% | 21 | 26.8 | 0.78× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $3.56 | 1.2% | 32 | 29.6 | 1.08× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $3.00 | 1.2% | 40 | 35.2 | 1.14× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $2.80 | 1.2% | 37 | 37.7 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 113 | $2.61 | 1.2% | 36 | 40.4 | 0.89× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $2.57 | 1.2% | 42 | 41.1 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $2.29 | 1.2% | 57 | 46.0 | 1.24× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $2.26 | 1.2% | 46 | 46.8 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $2.26 | 1.2% | 38 | 46.8 | 0.81× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $2.00 | 1.2% | 52 | 52.7 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.95 | 1.2% | 60 | 54.0 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | — | $1.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | — | $1.51 | 0.0% | 86 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $1.49 | 0.8% | 30 | 45.5 | 0.66× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1.47 | 0.8% | 30 | 45.5 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.42 | 1.5% | 36 | 91.1 | 0.40× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1.42 | 0.7% | 55 | 45.5 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.39 | 1.4% | 89 | 91.1 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.31 | 1.3% | 87 | 91.1 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $1.18 | 1.8% | 119 | 136.6 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.90 | 1.4% | 140 | 136.6 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.82 | 1.3% | 129 | 136.6 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.67 | 1.4% | 196 | 182.2 | 1.08× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.65 | 1.3% | 246 | 182.2 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.64 | 1.7% | 210 | 227.7 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.63 | 1.6% | 197 | 227.7 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.61 | 1.6% | 240 | 227.7 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.44 | 1.4% | 296 | 273.2 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.43 | 1.3% | 267 | 273.2 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.38 | 1.2% | 281 | 273.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-decommissioned-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.33 | 1.2% | 499 | 318.8 | 1.57× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-field-tested) | 16.5% | $0.30 | 2.5% | 559 | 751.4 | 0.74× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/monster/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=monster)

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) [Darkness](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Darkness) $1.90 $2.26 1.19x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) [frog18-](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/frog18-) $1.90 $0.38 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-field-tested) [𝔃𝓱𝓪𝓷𝓼𝓼](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%F0%9D%94%83%F0%9D%93%B1%F0%9D%93%AA%F0%9D%93%B7%F0%9D%93%BC%F0%9D%93%BC) $1.90 $0.30 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [Xaveyt](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Xaveyt) $1.90 $0.43 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) [MM15](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MM15) $1.90 $0.82 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [MM15](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MM15) $1.90 $0.43 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) [MM15](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MM15) $1.90 $0.44 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[AUG | Random Access (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-battle-scarred) [MM15](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MM15) $1.90 $1.42 0.75x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) [MM15](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MM15) $1.90 $1.39 0.73x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [MM15](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MM15) $1.90 $0.43 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.90 | 102.27% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.90 | 106.46% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.90 | 111.32% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.90 | 107.10% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.90 | 106.04% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.90 | 106.34% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.90 | 105.16% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.90 | 104.54% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.90 | 105.14% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.90 | 106.10% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.5% restricted 10.5% Ancient 0.2% classified 2.8% Mythical 14.5% #d32ee6 0.9% pink 1.0% #8847ff 16.0% violet 18.0% Legendary 0.0% Restricted 12.0% milspec 23.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 102.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $102.27 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt