---
title: "NIGHTMARE case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "NIGHTMARE ($0.40) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 156.27% from 63 items with odds, observed 77.70% over 16K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [NIGHTMARE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · NIGHTMARE

A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 156.27% · EV $0.63 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.70% · 16K openings, odds method

Variance · 115.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 51 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.06% ±39.77 2,718 openings

7 days · 77.62% ±18.00 15.1K openings

30 days · 77.70% ±17.62 16K openings

since tracking started · 77.70% ±17.62 16K openings

31.5% 97.7% 164.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 163.27% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (60.08% – 95.32%, 15,986 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare?window=24h) | 2,718 | 72.06% ±39.8 | −3.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare?window=7d) | 15.1K | 77.62% ±18.0 | −9.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare) | 16K | 77.70% ±17.6 | −9.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/nightmare?window=all) | 16K | 77.70% ±17.6 | −9.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 4,009 | $124 | 4.9% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,986 | $123 | 4.9% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 3,865 | $119 | 4.9% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,103 | $64.96 | 4.9% | 0 | 7.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 1,942 | $59.98 | 4.9% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 1,870 | $57.76 | 4.9% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 446 | $13.76 | 4.9% | 0 | 35.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 439 | $13.57 | 4.9% | 0 | 36.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) | 1 in 431 | $13.30 | 4.9% | 0 | 37.1 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 361 | $11.14 | 4.9% | 4 | 44.3 | 0.09× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 132 | $4.08 | 4.9% | 103 | 121.0 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $2.29 | 4.9% | 112 | 215.4 | 0.52× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $2.29 | 4.9% | 251 | 215.4 | 1.17× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) | 1 in 954 | $1.92 | 0.3% | 60 | 16.8 | 3.58× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 760 | $1.53 | 0.3% | 16 | 21.0 | 0.76× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-well-worn) | 1 in 747 | $1.50 | 0.3% | 32 | 21.4 | 1.50× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 747 | $1.50 | 0.3% | 25 | 21.4 | 1.17× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 735 | $1.47 | 0.3% | 21 | 21.8 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 684 | $1.37 | 0.3% | 32 | 23.4 | 1.37× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-battle-scarred) | 1 in 672 | $1.35 | 0.3% | 23 | 23.8 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 665 | $1.34 | 0.3% | 30 | 24.0 | 1.25× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 653 | $1.31 | 0.3% | 26 | 24.5 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 487 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 28 | 32.9 | 0.85× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 477 | $0.96 | 0.3% | 32 | 33.5 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 459 | $0.92 | 0.3% | 38 | 34.9 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-gauss-field-tested) | 1 in 408 | $0.82 | 0.3% | 34 | 39.2 | 0.87× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-factory-new) | 1 in 399 | $0.80 | 0.3% | 45 | 40.0 | 1.12× |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 396 | $0.79 | 0.3% | 45 | 40.4 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-field-tested) | 1 in 352 | $0.71 | 0.3% | 44 | 45.5 | 0.97× |
| [M249 \| Deep Relief (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-deep-relief-well-worn) | 1 in 335 | $0.67 | 0.3% | 42 | 47.8 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 304 | $0.61 | 0.3% | 49 | 52.7 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 301 | $0.60 | 0.3% | 66 | 53.1 | 1.24× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-well-worn) | 1 in 296 | $0.59 | 0.3% | 52 | 54.0 | 0.96× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-well-worn) | 1 in 296 | $0.59 | 0.3% | 77 | 54.0 | 1.42× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-factory-new) | 1 in 276 | $0.55 | 0.3% | 52 | 57.9 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 258 | $0.52 | 0.3% | 62 | 62.1 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-well-worn) | 1 in 247 | $0.50 | 0.3% | 72 | 64.6 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $0.48 | 0.3% | 62 | 67.0 | 0.92× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 226 | $0.45 | 0.3% | 67 | 70.8 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-minimal-wear) | 1 in 226 | $0.45 | 0.3% | 60 | 70.8 | 0.85× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 1 in 216 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 88 | 74.1 | 1.19× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 68 | 74.9 | 0.91× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 97 | 74.9 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-field-tested) | 1 in 212 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 109 | 75.4 | 1.45× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $0.41 | 0.3% | 285 | 78.7 | 3.62× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 201 | $0.40 | 0.3% | 63 | 79.6 | 0.79× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.39 | 0.6% | 115 | 159.9 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-field-tested) | — | $0.39 | 0.0% | 84 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.36 | 0.6% | 229 | 159.9 | 1.43× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.36 | 1.1% | 425 | 319.8 | 1.33× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.36 | 1.1% | 229 | 319.8 | 0.72× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.35 | 1.7% | 219 | 479.8 | 0.46× |
| [P90 \| Facility Negative (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.33 | 1.6% | 560 | 479.8 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.30 | 1.9% | 668 | 639.7 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 | 2.2% | 640 | 799.6 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-flame-test-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.28 | 1.8% | 590 | 639.7 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.21 | 1.7% | 951 | 799.6 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-slag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.19 | 1.8% | 763 | 959.5 | 0.80× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.19 | 1.8% | 952 | 959.5 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.16 | 1.8% | 973 | 1119.4 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 | 1.6% | 1,058 | 1119.4 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.09 | 1.2% | 1,234 | 1279.4 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.09 | 1.2% | 1,755 | 1279.4 | 1.37× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-well-worn) | 13.5% | $0.06 | 1.4% | 0 | 2158.9 | 0.00× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/nightmare/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=nightmare)

[P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-minimal-wear) [10er](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/10er) $0.40 $0.16 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-battle-scarred) [Lil ???](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Lil%20%3F%3F%3F) $0.40 $0.09 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-minimal-wear) [Lil ???](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Lil%20%3F%3F%3F) $0.40 $0.16 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) [Lil ???](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Lil%20%3F%3F%3F) $0.40 $0.09 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-well-worn) [Lil ???](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Lil%20%3F%3F%3F) $0.40 $0.06 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [WH-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/WH-_-) $0.40 $0.14 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-well-worn) [-LazeR-](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/-LazeR-) $0.40 $0.35 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-well-worn) [-LazeR-](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/-LazeR-) $0.40 $0.06 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [-LazeR-](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/-LazeR-) $0.40 $0.14 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-well-worn) [-LazeR-](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/-LazeR-) $0.40 $0.06 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.40 | 156.27% | 64 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.40 | 150.47% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.40 | 150.36% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.40 | 152.29% | 64 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.40 | 150.18% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.40 | 183.52% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.40 | 182.39% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.40 | 181.68% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.40 | 186.15% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.40 | 185.72% | 64 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% red 0.1% pink 0.5% classified 1.6% blue 7.3% #8847ff 1.9% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% restricted 2.2% Legendary 0.1% violet 0.3% Mythical 0.1% mil spec 6.0% Rare 16.5% milspec 36.5% #4b69ff 18.8% Mil Spec 6.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 156.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $156.27 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt