---
title: "NOBLE case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "NOBLE ($15.00) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 102.18% from 60 items with odds, observed 80.60% over 151 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [NOBLE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · NOBLE

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble?window=all)

Price · $15.00

Advertised RTP · 102.18% · EV $15.33 from 60 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.60% · 151 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 44 openings · below min

7 days · 83.74% ±33.76 134 openings

30 days · 80.60% ±31.77 151 openings

since tracking started · 80.60% ±31.77 151 openings

29.5% 89.0% 148.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble?window=24h) | 44 | 89.01% ±59.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble?window=7d) | 134 | 83.74% ±33.8 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble) | 151 | 80.60% ±31.8 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/noble?window=all) | 151 | 80.60% ±31.8 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,655 | $516 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 929 | $290 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 724 | $226 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 656 | $205 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 655 | $204 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 644 | $201 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 639 | $199 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 616 | $192 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 473 | $147 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 396 | $124 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 387 | $121 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 377 | $117 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 372 | $116 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 361 | $113 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 359 | $112 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 343 | $107 | 2.0% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 302 | $94.15 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 591 | $67.05 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 555 | $60.33 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 550 | $59.42 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 544 | $58.41 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 518 | $53.89 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 503 | $51.21 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 494 | $49.80 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 479 | $47.29 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $46.73 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 472 | $46.03 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 461 | $44.29 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 450 | $42.57 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 444 | $41.59 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 411 | $36.60 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 391 | $33.68 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 382 | $32.32 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 374 | $31.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 369 | $30.59 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 361 | $29.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 346 | $27.51 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 346 | $27.43 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 344 | $27.26 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 342 | $26.93 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 325 | $24.80 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 294 | $20.93 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 288 | $20.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 271 | $18.25 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 261 | $17.15 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 256 | $16.60 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $14.06 | 5.7% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $13.82 | 5.6% | 12 | 9.5 | 1.26× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $13.07 | 5.4% | 13 | 9.7 | 1.34× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $10.41 | 4.6% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $9.82 | 4.4% | 6 | 10.4 | 0.58× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $9.79 | 4.4% | 14 | 10.4 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $8.47 | 3.8% | 5 | 10.6 | 0.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $7.01 | 3.2% | 15 | 10.6 | 1.42× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $6.79 | 3.1% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $6.29 | 2.8% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.73 | 2.0% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $4.21 | 1.7% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $4.02 | 1.6% | 0 | 9.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.64 | 0.3% | 11 | 4.9 | 2.23× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/noble/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=noble)

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) [Basement\_CEO](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Basement_CEO) $15.00 $6.44 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $4.02 0.27x 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-field-tested) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $13.77 0.92x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $9.82 0.65x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC

[USP-S | Pathfinder (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-field-tested) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $13.07 0.87x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC

[USP-S | Pathfinder (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-field-tested) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $13.07 0.87x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $13.86 0.92x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $10.41 0.69x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $27.26 1.82x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $15.00 $4.02 0.27x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $15.00 | 102.18% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $15.00 | 101.15% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $15.00 | 101.44% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $15.00 | 101.44% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $15.00 | 100.23% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $15.00 | 100.34% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $15.00 | 102.10% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $15.00 | 98.90% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $15.00 | 99.70% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $15.00 | 99.91% | 60 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.1% epic 0.1% covert 4.1% classified 18.4% red 1.0% Ancient 0.3% pink 0.7% restricted 19.6% Legendary 25.5% Industrial Grade 6.4% violet 6.8% Rare 7.0% #d32ee6 6.9% Mythical 3.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 102.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $102.18 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt