---
title: "OPERATION-BROKEN-FANG case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "OPERATION-BROKEN-FANG ($5.20) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.49% from 45 items with odds, observed 64.71% over 54 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [OPERATION-BROKEN-FANG](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · OPERATION-BROKEN-FANG

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang?window=all)

Price · $5.20

Advertised RTP · 93.49% · EV $4.86 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 64.71% · 54 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 49 openings · below min

30 days · 54 openings · below min

since tracking started · 54 openings · below min

-0.5% 96.8% 194.0%

**Small sample.** 54 openings and 9.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang?window=24h) | 11 | 69.48% ±124.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang?window=7d) | 49 | 64.23% ±59.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang) | 54 | 64.71% ±56.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/operation-broken-fang?window=all) | 54 | 64.71% ±56.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,336 | $251 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 503 | $94.40 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 423 | $79.52 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 377 | $70.75 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 340 | $63.78 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 252 | $47.38 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $31.34 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $28.72 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-battle-scarred) | 1 in 452 | $22.86 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 393 | $18.12 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 342 | $14.34 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 341 | $14.24 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-factory-new) | 1 in 325 | $13.15 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 279 | $10.23 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 266 | $9.41 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 255 | $8.78 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 248 | $8.42 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $8.16 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $6.96 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-factory-new) | 1 in 221 | $6.90 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-wave-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $5.53 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 191 | $5.44 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $5.38 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $5.04 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $5.00 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $4.98 | 4.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [SG 553 \| Barricade (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.87 | 4.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $4.75 | 4.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [XM1014 \| Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.71 | 4.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-neon-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $4.46 | 4.0% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.70× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.92 | 3.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.38 | 3.2% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.94 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.82 | 2.7% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $2.73 | 2.6% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.58× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.72 | 2.6% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.15 | 2.0% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.62× |
| [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.09 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
| [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.87 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Vendetta (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-vendetta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.69 | 1.5% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.71× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.69 | 1.5% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.12 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.88 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-junk-yard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.77 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-digital-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $0.65 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.56× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/operation-broken-fang/info`, 11 Nov, 20:24 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=operation-broken-fang)

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-neon-ply-battle-scarred) [xzaizas](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/xzaizas) $5.20 $4.45 0.86x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.20 $2.73 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-battle-scarred) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.20 $2.73 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:14 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $5.20 $5.04 0.97x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.20 $2.94 0.56x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC

[MP7 | Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.20 $2.72 0.52x 2026-11-11 07:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.20 $4.75 0.91x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[P250 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-well-worn) Hidden $5.20 $2.09 0.40x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.20 $5.00 0.96x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Contaminant (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-factory-new) Hidden $5.20 $2.82 0.54x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.20 | 93.49% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $5.20 | 91.86% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.20 | 91.98% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.20 | 92.21% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $5.20 | 94.46% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $5.20 | 91.59% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $5.20 | 92.04% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $5.20 | 93.02% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $5.20 | 93.40% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.20 | 92.68% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.4% covert 1.3% classified 1.6% #4b69ff 4.6% milspec 5.6% pink 0.6% consumer 4.6% Classified 0.4% blue 0.4% Mil Spec Grade 4.5% restricted 18.3% violet 0.5% Restricted 9.7% #777777 4.2% Common 4.2% Consumer Grade 8.7% #8847ff 8.9% Rare 7.7% industrial 9.2% Mil Spec 2.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.49 on average: an expected loss of $6.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt