---
title: "PHOENIX case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PHOENIX ($0.75) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 123.29% from 28 items with odds, observed 66.58% over 3,733 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [PHOENIX](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · PHOENIX

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix?window=all)

Price · $0.75

Advertised RTP · 123.29% · EV $0.92 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 66.58% · 3,733 openings, odds method

Variance · 102.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 42 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 62.83% ±80.86 602 openings

7 days · 67.29% ±36.27 3,021 openings

30 days · 66.58% ±32.60 3,733 openings

since tracking started · 66.58% ±32.60 3,733 openings

-0.5% 72.0% 144.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 120.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (33.98% – 99.18%, 3,733 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix?window=24h) | 602 | 62.83% ±80.9 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix?window=7d) | 3,021 | 67.29% ±36.3 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix) | 3,733 | 66.58% ±32.6 | −3.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/phoenix?window=all) | 3,733 | 66.58% ±32.6 | −3.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,733 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 9,177 | $398 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 6,077 | $264 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,698 | $247 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 3,623 | $157 | 4.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,959 | $128 | 4.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,673 | $72.64 | 4.7% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 482 | $20.91 | 4.7% | 0 | 7.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 271 | $11.74 | 4.7% | 0 | 13.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 1 in 236 | $10.25 | 4.7% | 0 | 15.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $7.33 | 4.7% | 7 | 22.1 | 0.32× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $7.18 | 4.7% | 24 | 22.6 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $6.27 | 4.7% | 27 | 25.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $4.59 | 4.7% | 48 | 35.3 | 1.36× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 243 | $3.41 | 1.5% | 18 | 15.4 | 1.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 207 | $2.91 | 1.5% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $2.12 | 1.5% | 22 | 24.8 | 0.89× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $2.09 | 1.5% | 35 | 25.1 | 1.40× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cold-fusion-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $1.69 | 1.5% | 38 | 31.0 | 1.23× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $1.39 | 1.5% | 25 | 37.8 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $1.20 | 1.5% | 40 | 43.8 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $0.93 | 1.5% | 55 | 56.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $0.81 | 1.5% | 68 | 65.0 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.54 | 2.4% | 165 | 149.3 | 1.11× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.49 | 4.2% | 430 | 298.6 | 1.44× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.48 | 6.3% | 288 | 448.0 | 0.64× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.30 | 5.2% | 598 | 597.3 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.20 | 4.4% | 786 | 746.6 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 27.5% | $0.10 | 2.9% | 1,047 | 1026.6 | 1.02× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/phoenix/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=phoenix)

[Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) [Cardoso](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Cardoso) $0.75 $0.49 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) Hidden $0.75 $0.48 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-field-tested) [Scorpis999](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Scorpis999) $0.75 $0.54 0.72x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) [Yasins](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Yasins) $0.75 $0.48 0.64x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [Lukiton](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Lukiton) $0.75 $0.20 0.27x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [ur papa](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ur%20papa) $0.75 $0.20 0.27x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) [Fil0s0f](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Fil0s0f) $0.75 $0.48 0.64x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) [ur papa](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ur%20papa) $0.75 $0.10 0.13x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) [ur papa](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ur%20papa) $0.75 $0.10 0.13x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [ur papa](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ur%20papa) $0.75 $0.20 0.27x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.75 | 123.29% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.75 | 120.01% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.75 | 120.69% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.75 | 120.74% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.75 | 121.21% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.75 | 120.67% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.75 | 118.09% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.75 | 119.88% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.75 | 119.49% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.75 | 123.45% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.0% classified 0.6% Mil Spec Grade 0.4% restricted 2.4% Classified 1.5% Mythical 0.7% mil spec 21.1% Restricted 2.0% Industrial Grade 0.8% violet 1.0% #4b69ff 1.7% milspec 31.5% #87c7ff 16.0% industrial 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 123.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $123.29 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt