---
title: "POSEIDON case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "POSEIDON ($12.46) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 114.77% from 47 items with odds, observed 79.08% over 216 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [POSEIDON](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · POSEIDON

A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon?window=all)

Price · $12.46

Advertised RTP · 114.77% · EV $14.30 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.08% · 216 openings, odds method

Variance · 18.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 14 openings · below min

7 days · 114 openings · below min

30 days · 79.08% ±57.00 216 openings

since tracking started · 79.08% ±57.00 216 openings

-0.5% 163.3% 327.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon?window=24h) | 14 | 98.55% ±227.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon?window=7d) | 114 | 76.07% ±79.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon) | 216 | 79.08% ±57.0 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/poseidon?window=all) | 216 | 79.08% ±57.0 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 3,675 | $1,491 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 3,256 | $1,321 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,958 | $1,200 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 1,123 | $455 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 980 | $398 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 877 | $356 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 707 | $287 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 557 | $226 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 505 | $205 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 491 | $199 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 487 | $198 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $135 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 302 | $123 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 298 | $121 | 2.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 290 | $117 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 287 | $116 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $116 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 280 | $114 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 273 | $111 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 172 | $69.87 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 398 | $52.87 | 0.9% | 4 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $44.29 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $44.27 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 269 | $35.71 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 254 | $33.76 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 206 | $27.43 | 0.9% | 4 | 1.0 | 3.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $27.26 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $25.23 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 183 | $24.32 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $23.81 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 170 | $22.61 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.57× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 1 in 166 | $22.10 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 157 | $20.86 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $15.38 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $13.70 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $13.63 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $13.29 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $10.34 | 0.7% | 8 | 2.2 | 3.70× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $9.31 | 2.0% | 0 | 6.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $7.27 | 2.0% | 6 | 8.6 | 0.69× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $7.20 | 3.0% | 8 | 13.0 | 0.62× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $5.88 | 2.9% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $5.78 | 3.6% | 26 | 19.4 | 1.34× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.56 | 3.9% | 17 | 21.6 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 12.0% | $3.89 | 3.3% | 22 | 25.9 | 0.85× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 13.0% | $2.95 | 2.7% | 30 | 28.1 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 20.5% | $2.36 | 3.4% | 52 | 44.3 | 1.17× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/poseidon/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=poseidon)

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $12.46 $3.89 0.31x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $12.46 $2.36 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $12.46 $2.36 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $12.46 $21.31 1.71x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $12.46 $15.51 1.25x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $12.46 $26.85 2.15x 2026-11-11 00:05 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Jrdrake93](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Jrdrake93) $12.46 $2.24 0.18x 2026-11-10 23:07 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) [huerfakiller](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/huerfakiller) $12.46 $5.66 0.45x 2026-11-10 20:55 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $12.46 $52.87 4.24x 2026-11-10 17:26 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Just\_Sexy](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Just_Sexy) $12.46 $2.24 0.18x 2026-11-10 17:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $12.46 | 114.77% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $12.46 | 114.54% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $12.46 | 114.38% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $12.46 | 114.11% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $12.46 | 113.97% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $12.46 | 112.34% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $12.46 | 111.70% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $12.46 | 111.81% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $12.46 | 112.40% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $12.46 | 112.98% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 31.0% #ffd700 0.1% restricted 20.6% covert 3.6% epic 0.1% Ancient 0.3% red 0.3% extraordinary 0.4% #d32ee6 1.6% pink 3.9% #8847ff 17.0% Classified 9.0% milspec 12.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 114.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $114.77 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt