---
title: "PRISMA-2 case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PRISMA-2 ($1.99) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 105.23% from 52 items with odds, observed 66.94% over 101 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [PRISMA-2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · PRISMA-2

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2?window=all)

Price · $1.99

Advertised RTP · 105.23% · EV $2.09 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 66.94% · 101 openings, odds method

Variance · 41.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 79 openings · below min

30 days · 66.94% ±121.77 101 openings

since tracking started · 66.94% ±121.77 101 openings

-0.5% 252.8% 506.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2?window=24h) | 8 | 65.21% ±440.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2?window=7d) | 79 | 71.55% ±137.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2) | 101 | 66.94% ±121.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma-2?window=all) | 101 | 66.94% ±121.8 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 101 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,790 | $1,389 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,549 | $371 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,521 | $302 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 2,913 | $195 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 954 | $63.77 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 743 | $49.66 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 487 | $32.56 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 362 | $24.22 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $20.93 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 306 | $20.48 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $15.60 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-factory-new) | 1 in 172 | $11.49 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $11.47 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 1 in 474 | $9.09 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 1 in 399 | $6.81 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 378 | $6.24 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 368 | $5.97 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $5.36 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 332 | $5.03 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 312 | $4.53 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-last-dive-well-worn) | 1 in 280 | $3.78 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $3.14 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $3.12 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $2.79 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 220 | $2.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) | 1 in 208 | $2.30 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 201 | $2.18 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $2.10 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $2.09 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 194 | $2.05 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.98 | 4.0% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Crypsis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-crypsis-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.70 | 3.6% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.62 | 3.5% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-withered-vine-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.56 | 3.4% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.43× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $1.46 | 3.2% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.49× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $1.41 | 3.2% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $1.31 | 3.0% | 10 | 4.8 | 2.08× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.26 | 2.9% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.41× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.26 | 2.9% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.03× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $1.20 | 2.8% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.01 | 2.3% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.98 | 2.3% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-hand-brake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.97 | 2.3% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.42× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.93 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.91 | 2.1% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.81 | 1.9% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-tom-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.34 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [Negev \| Prototype (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.31 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.30 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $0.25 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.23 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
| [AUG \| Snake Pit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-snake-pit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 338 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/prisma-2/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=prisma-2)

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-hand-brake-battle-scarred) [TrAficanu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/TrAficanu) $1.99 $0.97 0.49x 2026-11-11 00:37 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) [TrAficanu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/TrAficanu) $1.99 $1.46 0.73x 2026-11-11 00:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-crypsis-factory-new) Hidden $1.99 $1.58 0.79x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.99 $0.25 0.13x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-crypsis-factory-new) [Eʙᴜ Zᴇʀ](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/E%CA%99%E1%B4%9C%20Z%E1%B4%87%CA%80) $1.99 $1.58 0.79x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) Hidden $1.99 $0.84 0.42x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC

[MAC-10 | Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) Hidden $1.99 $2.19 1.10x 2026-11-10 16:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-battle-scarred) [Chmielu\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Chmielu__) $1.99 $1.51 0.76x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) [KalemKem](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/KalemKem) $1.99 $6.19 3.11x 2026-11-10 11:38 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-hand-brake-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.99 $1.02 0.51x 2026-11-10 03:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.99 | 105.23% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.99 | 102.66% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.99 | 104.43% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.99 | 105.41% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.99 | 99.01% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.99 | 99.03% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.99 | 101.02% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.99 | 104.12% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.99 | 104.23% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.99 | 102.35% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.1% 2 0.4% Covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% covert 0.1% classified 1.7% Restricted 5.8% restricted 31.6% violet 5.4% pink 0.2% Mil Spec Grade 7.8% #8847ff 6.1% Industrial Grade 5.0% mil spec 0.5% #4b69ff 4.2% milspec 12.4% Rare 4.8% Mythical 4.9% #87c7ff 3.1% blue 2.4% Consumer Grade 0.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 105.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $105.23 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt