---
title: "PRISMA case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PRISMA ($1.12) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.38% from 48 items with odds, observed 75.02% over 294 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [PRISMA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · PRISMA

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma?window=all)

Price · $1.12

Advertised RTP · 86.38% · EV $0.97 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.02% · 294 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89 openings · below min

7 days · 75.21% ±27.82 256 openings

30 days · 75.02% ±25.88 294 openings

since tracking started · 75.02% ±25.88 294 openings

37.5% 85.0% 132.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma?window=24h) | 89 | 85.11% ±46.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma?window=7d) | 256 | 75.21% ±27.8 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma) | 294 | 75.02% ±25.9 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/prisma?window=all) | 294 | 75.02% ±25.9 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 294 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,326 | $167 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,131 | $62.75 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,497 | $30.00 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 520 | $10.42 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 483 | $9.68 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 404 | $8.10 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-incinegator-well-worn) | 1 in 393 | $7.89 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Nova \| Gila (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-gila-factory-new) | 1 in 386 | $7.73 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 373 | $7.47 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Kami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 366 | $7.33 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 349 | $6.99 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 1 in 334 | $6.69 | 2.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 311 | $6.24 | 2.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 411 | $4.57 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 335 | $3.26 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-memento-minimal-wear) | 1 in 295 | $2.63 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-minimal-wear) | 1 in 246 | $1.95 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.68× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $1.56 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $1.55 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 212 | $1.53 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 209 | $1.48 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 201 | $1.40 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.37× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $1.34 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 193 | $1.30 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-mummys-rot-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $1.22 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 181 | $1.17 | 0.7% | 7 | 1.6 | 4.32× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.01 | 4.4% | 17 | 12.4 | 1.37× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.01 | 4.4% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.93 | 4.1% | 14 | 12.6 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.92 | 4.1% | 13 | 12.7 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-whitefish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.85 | 3.8% | 11 | 12.9 | 0.86× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.83 | 3.8% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.79 | 3.6% | 10 | 13.0 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-lionfish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.72 | 3.3% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-vandal-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.72 | 3.3% | 6 | 13.1 | 0.46× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.68 | 3.2% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.67 | 3.1% | 15 | 13.1 | 1.14× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.64 | 3.0% | 19 | 13.1 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.64 | 3.0% | 18 | 13.1 | 1.37× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.62 | 2.9% | 14 | 13.1 | 1.07× |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.57 | 2.6% | 9 | 13.1 | 0.69× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.53 | 2.4% | 14 | 12.9 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-akoben-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.50 | 2.3% | 16 | 12.9 | 1.24× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Clay Ambush (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-clay-ambush-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.48 | 2.1% | 6 | 12.7 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-circaetus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.33 | 1.3% | 13 | 11.3 | 1.15× |
| [FAMAS \| Crypsis (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.32 | 1.2% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.21 | 0.7% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.79× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $0.13 | 0.2% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/prisma/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=prisma)

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [ur papa](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/ur%20papa) $1.12 $0.92 0.82x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

[G3SG1 | Scavenger (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-minimal-wear) [SexDemonKiller666](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/SexDemonKiller666) $1.12 $0.84 0.75x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[XM1014 | Quicksilver (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-well-worn) [Fil0s0f](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Fil0s0f) $1.12 $0.43 0.38x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-whitefish-minimal-wear) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $1.12 $0.85 0.76x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-well-worn) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $1.12 $0.67 0.60x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Akoben (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-akoben-well-worn) [DUBMANIA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/DUBMANIA) $1.12 $0.50 0.45x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Akoben (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-akoben-well-worn) Hidden $1.12 $0.50 0.45x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-minimal-wear) [xm1to](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/xm1to) $1.12 $0.62 0.55x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) Hidden $1.12 $1.55 1.38x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[FAMAS | Crypsis (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $1.12 $0.32 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.12 | 86.38% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.12 | 87.96% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.12 | 86.58% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.12 | 86.12% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.12 | 85.74% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.12 | 81.71% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.12 | 86.86% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.12 | 86.86% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.12 | 85.16% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.12 | 84.23% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 6.3% Covert 0.0% Industrial Grade 0.1% restricted 11.9% Classified 0.5% Mythical 5.9% Mil Spec Grade 5.5% classified 0.3% Restricted 0.5% mil spec 20.1% Consumer Grade 13.7% Rare 0.5% milspec 25.8% #4b69ff 4.5% violet 4.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.38 on average: an expected loss of $13.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt