---
title: "RACOON-FARM case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "RACOON-FARM ($0.45) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 98.59% from 50 items with odds, observed 74.63% over 14.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [RACOON-FARM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · RACOON-FARM

A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm?window=all)

Price · $0.45

Advertised RTP · 98.59% · EV $0.44 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.63% · 14.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 73.82% ±11.07 2,615 openings

7 days · 74.77% ±5.12 12.1K openings

30 days · 74.63% ±4.71 14.2K openings

since tracking started · 74.63% ±4.71 14.2K openings

62.0% 80.8% 99.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 98.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (69.91% – 79.34%, 14,213 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm?window=24h) | 2,615 | 73.82% ±11.1 | −4.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm?window=7d) | 12.1K | 74.77% ±5.12 | −9.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm) | 14.2K | 74.63% ±4.71 | −10.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/racoon-farm?window=all) | 14.2K | 74.63% ±4.71 | −10.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 5,790 | $69.87 | 2.7% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 803 | $9.69 | 2.7% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 777 | $9.37 | 2.7% | 0 | 18.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 604 | $7.28 | 2.7% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 576 | $6.96 | 2.7% | 0 | 24.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 521 | $6.29 | 2.7% | 0 | 27.3 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Night (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-well-worn) | 1 in 438 | $5.28 | 2.7% | 0 | 32.5 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $4.65 | 2.7% | 0 | 36.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 358 | $4.32 | 2.7% | 0 | 39.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 351 | $4.23 | 2.7% | 40 | 40.5 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-field-tested) | 1 in 318 | $3.84 | 2.7% | 40 | 44.7 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $3.45 | 2.7% | 40 | 49.7 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-battle-scarred) | 1 in 282 | $3.40 | 2.7% | 59 | 50.4 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $3.23 | 2.7% | 52 | 53.2 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 231 | $2.79 | 2.7% | 58 | 61.6 | 0.94× |
| [P90 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 297 | $2.07 | 1.6% | 52 | 47.9 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 277 | $1.84 | 1.5% | 59 | 51.3 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) | 1 in 275 | $1.81 | 1.5% | 62 | 51.8 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-stinger-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $1.73 | 1.5% | 61 | 53.3 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 243 | $1.47 | 1.4% | 44 | 58.6 | 0.75× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $1.44 | 1.4% | 75 | 59.5 | 1.26× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $1.18 | 1.3% | 91 | 66.9 | 1.36× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 213 | $1.18 | 1.3% | 75 | 66.9 | 1.12× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 199 | $1.06 | 1.2% | 67 | 71.6 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 175 | $0.86 | 1.1% | 104 | 81.2 | 1.28× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cocoa-rampage-field-tested) | 1 in 157 | $0.72 | 1.0% | 102 | 90.5 | 1.13× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $0.68 | 1.0% | 97 | 93.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.62 | 1.0% | 107 | 98.8 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Shred (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-shred-battle-scarred) | 1 in 137 | $0.57 | 0.9% | 356 | 103.9 | 3.43× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $0.47 | 0.9% | 335 | 116.3 | 2.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.38 | 3.6% | 590 | 605.7 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.33 | 3.3% | 577 | 641.3 | 0.90× |
| [P250 \| Drought (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-drought-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.31 | 3.2% | 592 | 652.7 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.31 | 3.2% | 602 | 655.9 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.30 | 3.1% | 0 | 659.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.30 | 3.1% | 608 | 660.7 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.29 | 3.1% | 674 | 664.5 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.28 | 3.0% | 677 | 674.9 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.23 | 2.5% | 654 | 699.3 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.20 | 2.3% | 685 | 706.0 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.18 | 2.0% | 680 | 706.0 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Submerged (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.13 | 1.3% | 638 | 671.2 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.12 | 1.3% | 661 | 662.3 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.12 | 1.2% | 675 | 658.3 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.12 | 1.2% | 663 | 654.1 | 1.01× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.10 | 1.0% | 603 | 626.5 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.10 | 0.9% | 573 | 611.0 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.08 | 0.7% | 545 | 546.1 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.08 | 0.6% | 539 | 541.1 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Mandrel (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.03 | 0.2% | 420 | 283.5 | 1.48× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/racoon-farm/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=racoon-farm)

[M249 | Submerged (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-minimal-wear) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $0.13 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-well-worn) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $0.08 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $0.13 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[M249 | Submerged (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-minimal-wear) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $0.13 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $0.09 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $0.39 0.87x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $1.80 4.01x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[P250 | Drought (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-drought-minimal-wear) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $0.31 0.69x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) [\_Ultron\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/_Ultron_) $0.45 $0.13 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) [Michal urwal skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Michal%20urwal%20skins.army) $0.45 $0.13 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.45 | 98.59% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.45 | 98.90% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.45 | 99.30% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.45 | 101.20% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.45 | 93.74% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.45 | 97.61% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.45 | 100.91% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.45 | 101.68% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.45 | 98.75% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.45 | 101.50% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 8.8% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% Mil Spec 0.1% #d32ee6 0.4% violet 1.0% Consumer Grade 4.8% Uncommon 0.6% industrial 0.3% milspec 18.4% #8847ff 1.8% Restricted 0.4% #4b69ff 5.0% Rare 5.0% Common 7.1% restricted 2.6% mil spec 28.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.7% blue 10.5% light blue 4.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 98.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $98.59 on average: an expected loss of $1.41 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt