---
title: "RECOIL case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "RECOIL ($0.40) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 111.09% from 44 items with odds, observed 76.84% over 1,869 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [RECOIL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · RECOIL

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 111.09% · EV $0.44 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.84% · 1,869 openings, odds method

Variance · 21.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.59% ±48.22 367 openings

7 days · 76.89% ±21.43 1,646 openings

30 days · 76.84% ±19.96 1,869 openings

since tracking started · 76.84% ±19.96 1,869 openings

33.5% 82.5% 131.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 107.83% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (56.89% – 96.80%, 1,869 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil?window=24h) | 367 | 82.59% ±48.2 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil?window=7d) | 1,646 | 76.89% ±21.4 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil) | 1,869 | 76.84% ±20.0 | −3.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/recoil?window=all) | 1,869 | 76.84% ±20.0 | −3.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,870 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,610 | $117 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,215 | $34.10 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,364 | $21.00 | 3.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 1,359 | $20.93 | 3.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-well-worn) | 1 in 650 | $10.00 | 3.5% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 437 | $6.73 | 3.5% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-well-worn) | 1 in 358 | $5.51 | 3.5% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-field-tested) | 1 in 245 | $3.78 | 3.5% | 0 | 7.6 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) | 1 in 237 | $3.65 | 3.5% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142 | $2.19 | 3.5% | 6 | 13.1 | 0.46× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 531 | $1.94 | 0.8% | 11 | 3.5 | 3.12× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 438 | $1.41 | 0.7% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) | 1 in 358 | $1.01 | 0.6% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.53× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 319 | $0.83 | 0.6% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) | 1 in 308 | $0.78 | 0.6% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 302 | $0.76 | 0.6% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $0.72 | 0.6% | 3 | 6.4 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Deep Relief (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-deep-relief-well-worn) | 1 in 287 | $0.70 | 0.5% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.07× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-field-tested) | 1 in 230 | $0.48 | 0.5% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 1 in 230 | $0.48 | 0.5% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.35× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 218 | $0.44 | 0.5% | 18 | 8.6 | 2.10× |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 218 | $0.44 | 0.5% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.28× |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $0.42 | 0.4% | 40 | 8.9 | 4.51× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 1 in 207 | $0.40 | 0.4% | 49 | 9.0 | 5.42× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.39 | 4.3% | 83 | 91.4 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.38 | 4.2% | 81 | 92.0 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.37 | 4.1% | 50 | 92.3 | 0.54× |
| [UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.35 | 3.9% | 79 | 92.9 | 0.85× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.33 | 3.7% | 0 | 93.3 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Submerged (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.32 | 3.6% | 102 | 93.5 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.32 | 3.6% | 95 | 93.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.30 | 3.4% | 80 | 93.7 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.30 | 3.4% | 91 | 93.7 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Bleached (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.30 | 3.4% | 90 | 93.7 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.29 | 3.3% | 84 | 93.7 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 | 3.1% | 0 | 93.6 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.27 | 3.0% | 0 | 93.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aloha-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.24 | 2.7% | 82 | 92.5 | 0.89× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.22 | 2.4% | 95 | 90.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Destroyer (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-destroyer-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.19 | 2.1% | 87 | 88.5 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.19 | 2.0% | 101 | 88.2 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-lifted-spirits-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.09 | 0.6% | 67 | 59.7 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.08 | 0.5% | 70 | 55.2 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-lifted-spirits-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $0.06 | 0.3% | 52 | 44.1 | 1.18× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/recoil/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=recoil)

[SG 553 | Bleached (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-minimal-wear) [-PickleRick CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/-PickleRick%20CS2SKINS.GIFT) $0.40 $0.30 0.75x 2026-11-11 17:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-well-worn) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.37 0.91x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-well-worn) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.37 0.91x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.27 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.28 0.69x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-contrast-spray-field-tested) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.22 0.54x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC

[M249 | Submerged (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-factory-new) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.32 0.81x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC

[P2000 | Turf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-battle-scarred) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.44 1.10x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-contrast-spray-field-tested) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.22 0.54x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC

[MAG-7 | Popdog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-battle-scarred) [Koblyk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Koblyk7) $0.40 $0.39 0.98x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.40 | 111.09% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.40 | 115.33% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.40 | 112.58% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.40 | 105.41% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.40 | 100.59% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.40 | 106.86% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.40 | 105.11% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.40 | 107.24% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.40 | 105.78% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.40 | 105.06% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 0.4% covert 0.1% classified 0.1% #8847ff 0.2% Mil Spec Grade 8.9% Industrial Grade 0.3% industrial 0.4% Mythical 1.0% restricted 0.5% violet 1.1% blue 5.2% Restricted 0.3% Common 10.4% mil spec 15.3% #4b69ff 10.2% Consumer Grade 10.3% Rare 4.9% milspec 25.2% grey 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 111.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $111.09 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt