---
title: "ROAD-TO-LORE case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ROAD-TO-LORE ($400.00) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.84% from 63 items with odds, observed 21.03% over 1 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [ROAD-TO-LORE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · ROAD-TO-LORE

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore?window=all)

Price · $400.00

Advertised RTP · 83.84% · EV $335.35 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 21.03% · 1 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 1 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1 openings · below min

-0.5% 220.3% 441.0%

**Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore?window=7d) | 1 | 21.03% ±419.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore) | 1 | 21.03% ±419.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/road-to-lore?window=all) | 1 | 21.03% ±419.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 281 | $7,570 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 239 | $6,456 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 192 | $5,186 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $4,895 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $2,256 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 516 | $1,598 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 461 | $1,327 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 450 | $1,272 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 434 | $1,199 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 393 | $1,017 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 366 | $904 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 356 | $861 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 335 | $780 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 335 | $779 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 327 | $749 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 327 | $747 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 319 | $717 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 312 | $693 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 309 | $681 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 297 | $637 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 292 | $619 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $599 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 283 | $587 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 262 | $516 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 241 | $449 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 225 | $401 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $309 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $299 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $290 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $285 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $273 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $242 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $237 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $224 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $215 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $214 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $208 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $207 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $199 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $194 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $184 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $173 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $167 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $159 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $152 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $144 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $142 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $139 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $133 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $130 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $123 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $121 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $120 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $114 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $114 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $111 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $108 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $98.33 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $86.66 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $81.74 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $79.17 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $74.30 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $56.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/road-to-lore/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=road-to-lore)

[★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) [Mai](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Mai) $400 $84.12 0.21x 2026-11-08 09:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $400 | 83.84% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $400 | 84.41% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $400 | 85.00% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $400 | 85.98% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $400 | 86.58% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $400 | 85.98% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $400 | 84.71% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $400 | 84.84% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $400 | 84.84% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $400 | 84.47% | 63 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 56.3% contraband 0.9% extraordinary 5.5% classified 10.1% gold 4.0% covert knife 5.2% #ffd700 0.3% #eb4b4b 0.3% Covert 0.3% restricted 2.2% red 2.2% epic 4.8% rare 2.5% Legendary 2.6% pink 2.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.84 on average: an expected loss of $16.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt