---
title: "SHADOW case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SHADOW ($1.62) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.26% from 48 items with odds, observed 73.06% over 100 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [SHADOW](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · SHADOW

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow?window=all)

Price · $1.62

Advertised RTP · 86.26% · EV $1.40 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.06% · 100 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 86 openings · below min

30 days · 73.06% ±54.16 100 openings

since tracking started · 73.06% ±54.16 100 openings

-0.5% 123.3% 247.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow?window=24h) | 12 | 90.46% ±155.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow?window=7d) | 86 | 76.54% ±58.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow) | 100 | 73.06% ±54.2 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/shadow?window=all) | 100 | 73.06% ±54.2 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 100 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,506 | $165 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 2,869 | $135 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 811 | $38.15 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 395 | $18.61 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 346 | $16.27 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 300 | $14.12 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-well-worn) | 1 in 298 | $14.02 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 213 | $10.03 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 209 | $9.82 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 188 | $8.83 | 3.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 367 | $4.64 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $3.93 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $3.20 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 293 | $3.19 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 1 in 283 | $3.00 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $2.44 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 237 | $2.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 237 | $2.23 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 235 | $2.20 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 235 | $2.20 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | $1.98 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 217 | $1.93 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 206 | $1.76 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 197 | $1.64 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 197 | $1.64 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $1.50 | 4.1% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.81× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.45 | 4.0% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.18 | 3.5% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.18 | 3.5% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.70× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.10 | 3.3% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.08 | 3.2% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-twist-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.05 | 3.1% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.01 | 3.0% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.67× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Scale (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-scale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.01 | 3.0% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-akoben-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.92 | 2.8% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.90 | 2.7% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.66× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.88 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.79 | 2.4% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.77 | 2.3% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.73 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.65 | 1.9% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-cobalt-core-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.56 | 1.6% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.52 | 1.4% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.47 | 1.2% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.47 | 1.2% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× |
| [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.42 | 1.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.40 | 1.0% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Zander (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-zander-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $0.25 | 0.5% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.96× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/shadow/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=shadow)

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $1.62 $0.88 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[FAMAS | Survivor Z (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $1.62 $0.79 0.49x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) [𝐒o𝕃🇪​ĸ](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%F0%9D%90%92o%F0%9D%95%83%F0%9F%87%AA%E2%80%8B%C4%B8) $1.62 $1.10 0.68x 2026-11-11 06:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-cobalt-core-well-worn) [❣Sơc𝒉𝚊n❣](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%E2%9D%A3S%C6%A1c%F0%9D%92%89%F0%9D%9A%8An%E2%9D%A3) $1.62 $0.57 0.35x 2026-11-11 00:59 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-cobalt-halftone-well-worn) [❣Sơc𝒉𝚊n❣](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%E2%9D%A3S%C6%A1c%F0%9D%92%89%F0%9D%9A%8An%E2%9D%A3) $1.62 $1.50 0.92x 2026-11-11 00:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Zander (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-zander-battle-scarred) [❣Sơc𝒉𝚊n❣](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%E2%9D%A3S%C6%A1c%F0%9D%92%89%F0%9D%9A%8An%E2%9D%A3) $1.62 $0.25 0.16x 2026-11-11 00:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-cobalt-core-well-worn) [Electric](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Electric) $1.62 $0.57 0.35x 2026-11-11 00:59 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) [Electric](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Electric) $1.62 $9.06 5.59x 2026-11-11 00:59 UTC

[P250 | Ripple (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-well-worn) [Electric](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Electric) $1.62 $0.48 0.30x 2026-11-11 00:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) [VOLBER](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/VOLBER) $1.62 $0.97 0.60x 2026-11-10 23:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.62 | 86.26% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $1.62 | 86.15% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.62 | 85.47% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.62 | 86.69% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $1.62 | 84.95% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $1.62 | 88.17% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $1.62 | 92.45% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $1.62 | 87.75% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $1.62 | 88.37% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $1.62 | 91.90% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% classified 1.1% light blue 0.3% industrial 5.2% #d32ce6 0.5% Industrial Grade 1.0% restricted 10.8% #8847ff 4.2% milspec 23.2% Mil Spec 0.5% mil spec 8.5% Consumer Grade 4.7% blue 4.6% Rare 19.7% Uncommon 4.2% Mil Spec Grade 4.2% #4b69ff 3.9% violet 3.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.26 on average: an expected loss of $13.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt