--- title: "SPELL case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "SPELL ($17.38) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.97% from 43 items with odds, observed 68.24% over 102 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [SPELL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell) # [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · SPELL A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell?window=all) Price · $17.38 Advertised RTP · 86.97% · EV $15.12 from 43 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.24% · 102 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 95 openings · below min 30 days · 68.24% ±49.74 102 openings since tracking started · 68.24% ±49.74 102 openings 7.0% 87.5% 168.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell?window=24h) | 38 | 87.37% ±79.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell?window=7d) | 95 | 71.68% ±51.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell) | 102 | 68.24% ±49.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/spell?window=all) | 102 | 68.24% ±49.7 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,896 | $1,437 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,231 | $823 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 838 | $309 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 760 | $280 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 623 | $230 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 608 | $224 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 579 | $214 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 555 | $205 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 540 | $199 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 540 | $199 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 536 | $198 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 375 | $138 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 343 | $127 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 343 | $127 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 332 | $122 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 328 | $121 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 319 | $117 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 242 | $89.27 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 238 | $87.65 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 290 | $60.47 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 288 | $60.13 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 274 | $57.23 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 262 | $54.63 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 233 | $48.53 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 223 | $46.54 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 210 | $43.82 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187 | $38.94 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 176 | $36.65 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 176 | $36.64 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $35.98 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) | 1 in 172 | $35.82 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $30.30 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 131 | $27.43 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $23.97 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $23.53 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $11.56 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $10.20 | 2.7% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.23× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $9.12 | 4.2% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $5.77 | 3.4% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.54× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $5.64 | 4.5% | 12 | 12.2 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $5.24 | 4.9% | 18 | 14.3 | 1.26× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 16.0% | $4.99 | 5.3% | 19 | 16.3 | 1.16× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 23.0% | $3.31 | 5.0% | 21 | 23.5 | 0.90× | Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/spell/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=spell) [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $17.38 $3.31 0.19x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $17.38 $5.24 0.30x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $17.38 $5.24 0.30x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $17.38 $3.31 0.19x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $17.38 $9.12 0.52x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $17.38 $5.67 0.33x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) [zoyt4H'](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/zoyt4H') $17.38 $48.53 2.79x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $17.38 $6.36 0.37x 2026-11-11 00:20 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) [Sharpey](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Sharpey) $17.38 $6.36 0.37x 2026-11-11 00:18 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $17.38 $5.08 0.29x 2026-11-11 00:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $17.38 | 86.97% | 43 | | 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $17.38 | 87.49% | 43 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $17.38 | 88.48% | 43 | | 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $17.38 | 87.88% | 43 | | 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $17.38 | 87.84% | 43 | | 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $17.38 | 90.03% | 43 | | 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $17.38 | 89.21% | 43 | | 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $17.38 | 90.14% | 43 | | 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $17.38 | 90.00% | 43 | | 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $17.38 | 90.19% | 43 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.8% classified 8.7% knifes 0.2% red 0.9% Ancient 0.5% Legendary 16.9% restricted 65.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.97 on average: an expected loss of $13.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt